Janusz Niedzwiecki ,Polish publicist and social activist gave an exclusive interview to Eurasia Diary regarding deployment of US military in Eastern Europe.
The largest shipment of US brigades since the fall of the Soviet Union is arriving in northern Germany. The equipment and 3,500 US troops are to be deployed along NATO's eastern frontier. The deployment aims to allay worries of potential Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. The arrival of the equipment and troops marks the start of a new phase of the US's Operation Atlantic Resolve, which foresees the continuous presence of an American armored brigade combat team in Europe on a nine-month rotational basis.
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Eurasia Diary: Since the Soviet Union collapse, the largest armed U.S. military brigade has arrived at a port in northern Germany in order to prevent the military threat coming from Russia. In your opinion, can USA maintain peace and prosperity in Eastern Europe and Baltic states?
Janusz Niedzwiecki: The arrival of US troops to Eastern Europe is a bad signal for the whole Europe. Firstly, such a large and rapid militarization in this region increases a risk of the conflict, since it changes this region in a "barrel of gunpowder". Secondly, it changes geopolitical situation. Now Eastern European countries in addition to relatively small tensions that has took place between them and Russia (I omit here the Ukraine, which is a completely separate issue) will be multiply with the tensions that came from the struggle between the US and Russia. And as those countries have many options to deal with the tensions created by their own policies, now they will be dealing with the tensions beyond the actual scope of their influence. In my opinion, the militarization is not an effective way to build peace and prosperity. This can be done only by political agreements, trading and cooperation in key areas such as culture, education and science. The arrival of US troops into Eastern Europe will only accelerate the armaments race that bringing us one step closer to a New Cold War.
Eurasia Diary: Some politicians predict that large number of US troops will exacerbate tension with Russia. Please tell me your viewpoint on this
Janusz Niedzwiecki: I totally agree with such an opinion. Russia for a long time react very nervously to any planned or actual movement of US military installations towards Russian borders. It is not surprising, since military installations located in Poland and the Baltic States are close enough from Moscow, to enable direct attack on Russian capital with using conventional weapons such as ie. rockets AGM-158B JASSM-ER (which were sold by Americans to Polish army few weeks ago) which can hit targets in a range of 1000km. For this reason, it can be expected that Russia will not only heavily arm its western outposts (such as Kaliningrad Oblast), but will also put much more determination to bring back the Ukraine into a Russian sphere of influence. All this will cause a lot of tensions and new problems in relations between EU member states and Russia.
Eurasia Diary: Why do Eastern Europe states and Baltic countries trust the USA and Western Europe countries that they can protect them from Russian aggression?
Janusz Niedzwiecki: In Eastern Europe there is a common opinion that the presence of US troops will force direct involvement of the United States in any conflict that could erupt in the countries where US troops are present. This
is also a sign that nobody actually believe any more guarantees that came from Article.5 of the NATO treaty. This radical lack of confidence into NATO treaty is causing this need for more direct guaranties - such as building US military installations and bringing US troops to Poland and Baltic countries.
Eurasia Diary: Do you think that increase in US forces in Europe will urge Russia to seat at the negotiating table?
Janusz Niedzwiecki: There will certainly be major negotiations between Russia and the US in the near future - negotiations that will bring us closer to a new division of spheres of influence in the Europe that will take place in older Yalta order. However, the guarantee for such negotiations came not with the arrival of US troops to Eastern Europe, but with the election of Donald Trump for the president of the United States. In my opinion, bringing US troops to Europe is a political act of Obama administration, which has, on one hand, to complicate Trump negotiations with Russia, and on the other hand have to ensure a more rigid negotiating position. Although we could imagine that Trump will not have taken such a decision (about moving US troops towards the borders of Russia), it is obvious that his political opponents will attack him harshly if he will withdraw the troops without explicit the reason or without negotiating with Russia some really important issues for US interests. For this reason, we should read this political issue not only in terms of international politics, but also in terms of internal political war between Democrats and new administration of Donald Trump.
By Yunis Abdullayev
