We often get caught up in the week to week (if not day to day) movement in the polls. A longer view of voter preferences reveals a lot of stability in the 2020 Democratic primary.
Take a look at the top 6 candidates in our new poll versus their October 2018 numbers:
- Biden 32% (33% in October)
- Sanders 18% (14% in October)
- Harris 8% (10% in October)
- Warren 7% (9% in October)
- Buttigieg 5% (not asked in October)
- O'Rourke 5% (7% in October)
No candidate has moved more than 5 points. The majority have moved only 2 points or less.
Now, most voters are not paying a lot of attention to the primary yet. It would be silly, therefore, to expect a lot of changes at this point.
But just because they're not locked in doesn't mean they'll change their minds once they do tune into the race.
Biden is still heavily favored among voters who are paying a lot of attention to the race, according to a May Quinnipiac University poll.
Moreover, voters seem to be satisfied with their choices. In April, 80% of voters in the CNN poll said they were at least fairly satisfied with their choices for the nomination. A race in which voters were not satisfied with their choices would probably yield more movement.
We could be experiencing the Democratic version of the 2016 Republican primary. In that primary, Trump held a fairly steady lead from July 2015 onward that he carried him to the nomination.
It's possible that Biden will do the same thing this cycle.