On August 12, Presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation. According to Russia's ITAR-TASS news agency, the two presidents discussed bilateral relations between the two neighbouring countries. President Ilham Aliyev also congratulated Vladimir Putin on the occasion of the finding of the first coronavirus vaccine in his country.
However, local media of Azerbaijan says that the main topic of discussion between the two heads of states is related to Russia's recent secret arms sales to Armenia. As we know, after the military confrontation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, Moscow has constantly delivered more than 400 tons of weapons to Armenia through air spaces of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran.
President Ilham Aliyev brought to the attention of Vladimir Putin the intensification of secret military transportation from Russia to Armenia that caused concern and serious questions in the society of Azerbaijan.
"President Ilham Aliyev expressed his concern in the telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin that after the military confrontation on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, the volume of military cargos transported from Russia to Armenia via the air spaces of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran has exceeded 400 tons, "- president.az cited.
A number of Azerbaijani political analysts consider that Moscow's clandestine supply of military cargos to Armenia casts doubt on Russia's peace initiative in the negotiations on the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as well as damages bilateral relations between the two countries.
Aziz Alibeyli, who is a political analyst on international relations at the Centre for Social Research told that Russia's secret arms sales to Armenia would lead up to some changes in Azerbaijan's foreign policy.
"One of the main priorities for Azerbaijan is the fair settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the liberation of the occupied territories," Aziz Alibeyli says.
According to the view of his, the foreign policy of Azerbaijan serves in favour of the just settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
“Azerbaijan has its own political, strategic and military partners and countries with which it has friendly relations. As far as Baku is concerned, it is trying to squeeze Armenia with taking advantage of this process, the principles of international law, the resolutions of the international organizations and the negotiations within the OSCE Minsk Group. "If none of this happens, we have the right to liberate our lands through anti-terror operations in accordance with international law," he says.
Political expert noted that Russia’s secret supply of heavy weapons to Armenia after Tovuz clashes unfold serious facts.
“Russia did first such step in 1997. The supply of heavy weapons from Russia to Armenia that year caused scandal and rage in our country. Unfortunately, we have again witnessed such a step by Russia. Following Tovuz clashes Russia’s sale of heavy ammunition to Armenia within 15 days has revealed serious facts. It is obvious that Russia is not sincere in its attitude towards Azerbaijan. While speaking of a peace settlement, Russia is openly arming Armenia. It helps Armenia's continuation of aggressive and occupation policy against Azerbaijan. The Armenian army uses these weapons not only against Azerbaijani soldiers, but also against the civilian population," Aziz Alibeyli says.
Rahim Rahimov and Ahmad Alili, other Azerbaijani political analysts on international relations, also touched upon that issue.
According to view of Rahim Rahimov, Russia has strong influence in the region of the South Caucasus.
“By sending weapons to Armenia through air spaces of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran, Moscow sends a message that Russia has influence on all sides of the South Caucasus region and can act at any time," he says.
Political expert noted that most political scientists and politicians in Azerbaijan unnecessarily exaggerate the Pashinyan factor and he considers that Pashinyan's coming to power does not contradict Russia's interests.
"Some in Azerbaijan expect that Russia will leave Armenia and support us. This is far from political reality and is the product of a naive illusion,” Rahimov says.
“Taking all this into account, Azerbaijan should focus not only on individuals and leaders and their behaviour, but also on more important trends, processes and the interests of states," he added.
Ahmad Alili, the chairperson of Caucasus Analytical Centre considers, the South Caucasus has recently turned into the geopolitical threshold.
"After the clashes in the direction of the Tovuz region of Azerbaijan, certain geopolitical mechanisms have been put in force as well as Azerbaijan has determined for itself who is a his friend and enemy. In this context, Azerbaijan has begun to take a tough stance toward the countries and governments, who provided Armenia with heavy weapons and allowed the transportation of these weapons. As a result of the issues raised by the President, we witnessed the visit of high-ranking officials of Serbia to Azerbaijan and their actual support for Armenia was stopped,” Alili says.
“Russia’s support to Armenian aggression within the period of 1990 years is undeniable historical fact. Although, this process has been slowed down in recent decades, it is still observed,” he added.
Ahmed Alili also noted that Russia's armament of Armenia would create problems for itself in its southern territory.
"Russia's armament of Armenia could be expected to turn against itself in the end. Russian officials themselves say that the weapons Armenia bought from Russia in recent years later fell into the hands of some illegal military units. Therefore, it should not be overlooked that the weapons sold by Russia to Armenia today will not fall into the hands of radical groups on its territory,” he stressed.
It is also necessary to touch upon the recent joint military drills between Turkey and Azerbaijan, as there may be some links between military exercises and Russia's recent move.
The joint military drills of Turkey and Azerbaijan have alarmed Armenia. At the same time Kremlin's silence on the exercises has angered Armenian officials.
However, it is important to ask one question in mind. Could joint Turkish-Azerbaijani military drills affect Moscow's strategic interests in the South Caucasus?
Javid Valiyev, the Chairperson of the Foreign Policy Department at the Centre of Analysis of International Relations Analysis, briefly commented on this issue.
He says that the Azerbaijani-Turkish military drills were not directed against other countries.
"Azerbaijani-Turkish relations are not directed against other countries. Of course, Turkey has interests in the South Caucasus, and Azerbaijan is a South Caucasian state. That is, the goal here is to act in accordance with the interests of both states. Cooperation between the two brotherly countries has always served stability and prosperity in the region," Javid Valiyev says.
Finally, it should be noted that the government of Azerbaijan should review diplomatic relations with several countries arming Armenia or assisting in supply of weapons to Armenia. It is necessary to carry out certain changes in the foreign policy strategy of our country. Of course, the one of the main priorities in the foreign policy of Azerbaijan is to maintain diplomatic relations equally with neighbours and other countries. However, national interests of our country should not be sacrificed. In international affairs, Azerbaijan must continue to take legal steps in order to protect national interests. Furthermore, the relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan should be further strengthened. At the same time, we need to get closes to the European Union and NATO.
Written by Abdullayev Yunis
