How would Kosovo agreement affect the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Azerbaijani expert

Politics 14:40 08.09.2020

US President Donald Trump has taken steps to reduce tensions between Kosovo and Serbia following the UAE-Israel agreement. Trump administration was able to bring the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia together to sign an agreement on economic and political issues.

The event has been widely discussed in the media by political commentators and analysts. Thus, the political developments leading to the recognition of Kosovo and the possibility of its influence to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are also important for us.

Elkhan Shahinoglu, the head of the Atlas Research Center and a political analyst, commented to Eurasia Diary on this issue and he said that there was no problem with recognizing Kosovo.

"There is no problem with the recognition of Kosovo, many countries recognize its independence, including Turkey, a strategic ally of Azerbaijan. The last meeting in Washington focused on economic issues. The meeting between the Kosovo leader and the Serbian president does not mean recognition of Serbia. So far, an agreement has been signed to restore economic ties.”

The political analyst believes that it is useful to take into account many political factors in this agreement.

"There are several aspects of this agreement. Given that the US presidential elections will be held in November, which is especially important for Trump. He intends to be remembered with a number of successes in foreign policy before the elections. We can also add here his mediation in the restoration of UAE-Israel relations. "

"Another point is connected to the elimination of Russia's influence in the region. Serbia is one of the few countries in Europe cooperating closely with Russia. However, the United States and Europe are gradually drawing Serbia towards NATO. Thus, Serbia will gradually recognize the independence of Kosovo. The President of Serbia is not against it, but he wants it to be done gradually, because it is important to prepare and explain to the Serbian people. "

The political analyst does not rule out that this event will have a serious impact on Serbia's foreign policy.

"In the course of this process, Serbia’s way to the EU and NATO will be opened and, in fact, it will break away from Russia. Russia is trying to prevent this, but it will not achieve its goal."

Elkhan Shahinoglu believes that the Kosovo issue differs from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and territorial disputes in the other post-soviet regions.

"I do not believe that these methods can be used in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and other post-Soviet conflicts, because situations are very different. There is no common view here. It is impossible to apply conflict resolution methods that used in Europe here. Whereas there is a possibility that a successful solution method used in the post-Soviet region can be applied in Nagorno-Karabakh, but the existing methods in Europe cannot be denied here. For example, there is the Aaland model for resolving the territorial dispute between Finland and Sweden. However, Armenians do not agree on this method. Even though Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev proposed maximum autonomy, Armenia did not agree. It is important to take into account the Armenian and Russian factors. "

The head of the Atlas Research Center also explained Azerbaijan's position on the conflict.

"Azerbaijan is among the countries that do not recognize Kosovo. We must take into account our own position here. I want to remind that during the Yugoslav war, Azerbaijani peacekeeping forces held mission in Kosovo within the framework of NATO. However, when the issue of independence arose, Azerbaijan withdrew its forces.

The political analyst also drew attention to similarities and differences between the two conflicts.

“In my opinion, Kosovo has right to be independent.  In addition, there is no parallel between Kosovo and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. These are completely different events. While ethnic cleansing was carried out against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, the opposite happened in Azerbaijan, where separatists attacked us. However, our state has own policy, and we cannot recognize the independence of Kosovo, "political analyst Elkhan Shahinoglu said.

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