"20 percent of Ukraine can be occupied" - British expert

Politics 14:00 06.03.2024

Despite a new aid package prepared by Western countries for Kiev, the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war still remains as it is. Medvedev's plan to divide Ukraine has caused different reactions in the world.

Speaking to Ednews on the subject, British political expert Patrick Walsh pointed out three main problems that Ukraine is currently facing:

"The Ukrainians have 3 major problems. Firstly, they are desperately short of ammunition, particularly artillery shells. This is largely a western failure because Russia has a much greater industrial base than the west, which has deindustrialised over recent decades. Western weaponry is high-tech and therefore likely to cause an escalation in the conflict.

The German Taurus missiles are a good example of this. If the Germans give them to Kyiv they could hit Moscow. If Moscow is hit why not Berlin? So that is the second problem Kyiv has. The West are not prepared to risk a world war with Russia. So their support is limited. A third issue is that Ukraine is running out of manpower due to battlefield losses.

They need another half a million soldiers to mount any future counterattack. But to do this they would have to start drafting the under 25s. Ukraine's low recent birth rate means they have a shortage of young men and are therefore reluctant to do so".

Expert also stated that it will not be that easy to start the peace negotioations after two years of war:

"Medvedev has proved more hardliners than Putin since the start of the war. However, it is unlikely that Russia will give up the territory it has fought hard to win.

The chances are that 20 per cent of Ukraine will be lost as a result of this war. States do not willingly give up territory that have cost them large numbers of their soldiers. Putin keeps his cards close to his chest and is likely to flexible in negotiations but after the events of the last two years that may be very difficult".

Farid

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