Pompeo's new Iran strategy calls for risky regime change in Tehran

Analytics 09:03 26.05.2018
In his first public speech as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made important statements outlining the Donald Trump administration's new strategy toward Iran. In his Heritage Foundation speech "After the Deal: A New Iran Strategy" Pompeo signaled a radical change in the U.S.' strategy toward Iran. The highlight of Pompeo's speech was the list of 12 "basic demands" from Iran.
 
A week after Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Pompeo outlined the terms of a new agreement with Tehran. Pompeo demanded Iran stop supporting its proxies and allies in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine and elsewhere. Pompeo's 12 demands also included ending uranium enrichment and its missile program. Pompeo also threatened Iran with maximum pressure and strengthened sanctions if Iran does not accept the demands.
 
The Trump administration's Iran strategy opposes former U.S. President Barack Obama's Iran policy. The Obama administration wanted to reintegrate Iran into the international system and the regional balance of power by legitimizing it with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Obama and the signatories of the JCPOA expected a gradual change in Iran's political system and Iran's regional posture. More moderate factions within the Iranian political spectrum were expected to play increasing roles after the signing of the JCPOA but those expectations went unfulfilled. The Trump administration argued that the Iran nuclear deal had backfired and that it had instead strengthened Iran's regional ambitions and fueled Iranian expansionism in the region.
 
For the Trump administration, the only acceptable option for Iran is a regime change. The options offered to Iran are either a smooth, willing change or a prolonged, more painful transition. The methods of change involve either a voluntary/smooth regime transition by accepting the 12 demands – which seems unlikely with the current political structure of Iran – or change through force by pushing the regime out with street protests and other domestic social, economic and political instabilities.
 
There is solid Israeli, Saudi and Emirati support for the Trump administration's new Iran strategy as outlined in Pompeo's speech; however, the European side and Russia are unhappy about such a unilateral change in a multilateral agreement that was approved in the United Nations Security Council. At the same time, Trump's policy change signals his government's unwillingness to coordinate with his European counterparts in critical security issues. Likewise, European actors are unhappy about Trump's unilateral decision in exiting the Iranian nuclear deal, but their concerns are more about Trump's decision-making style rather than his attitude toward Iran. In any case, Trump seems to be determined to switch to the new Iran strategy even as some Europeans have chosen to stick to the deal.
 
The Trump administration's new strengthened sanctions, considered the "strongest in history" by Pompeo, against Iran will turn into a collective punishment of the Iranian people who will be forced to react. Rather than targeted sanctions for the regime's strongmen and their affiliated businesses, the new package of sanctions is expected to have negative consequences in the lives of ordinary Iranians. As a result, Iran's people are expected to increase their criticism and protests against the regime. In any case, the regime change is the expected outcome of Pompeo's list of 12 demands.
 
Iran's President Hasan Rouhani responded to Pompeo's declarations by rejecting all of the demands. There were similar responses from high-level Iranian officials representing the Republican Guard and the military as well. It is tough to infiltrate Iran and stimulate an uprising through external intervention because the regime is already prepared to suppress such initiatives. Internal rifts and polarization in the governing elite could be another expected outcome of the strengthened sanctions, but Iran's religious leader Ali Khamenei is strong enough to deter such potential splits. The overall impact of Trump's new policy may consolidate the Iranian people as well as regime circles against Trump's U.S. However, when the sanctions hit the Iranian economy harder, there may be some debates about concessions. In any case, externally forcing Iran into a regime change is a risky strategy which may eventually trigger a region-wide war. The U.S. is not prepared for such an encounter and neither are any other major global actors, including Russia. At this point, the only option left for Iran is either to make significant concessions in its regional ambitions or escalate tensions further. Such an escalation may trigger a regional war and delegitimize Iran further.
 
The Trump administration and its allies in the region, namely Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, seem pretty determined in this new risky policy. With his recent aggressive diplomatic moves, Trump may also face isolating his country in international diplomacy. The response of other major international actors, including China, Russia and European nations, will determine the effectiveness of Trump's new strategy. If these actors consider Trump's recent risky diplomatic maneuvers, including Trump's trade wars, as a threat to their national security and interests, they may consider countering Trump. For the time being, we have not seen any solidarity among those actors and in the international community against Trump's foreign policy gambits. Iran's risky foreign policy moves and over-expansion in the region have also made Iran an unpopular actor despite Trump's risky diplomatic choices.
 
For an extended period, Washington has been unable to formulate a consistent foreign policy strategy for the Middle East. There were splits and disagreements among various institutions. Pompeo came up with a new and a more aggressive plan for the U.S.' Middle East strategy centered around a regime change in Iran. The U.S. needs the support of other actors in the region to succeed in this ambitious plan. Trump's controversial step of moving the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and unwillingness to take the concerns of its regional and international allies into account makes this game plan very difficult. It seems that this plan will destabilize the entire region in the short run if Iran does not accept the concessions. There is no clear path for sustainable stabilization or formation of an alternative order in the region. Despite Pompeo's ambitious plan, Trump does not seem to be interested in establishing a new order in the region. Trump's Middle East vision, which is centered around Israel's maximalist security claims, does not support the emergence of holistic order in the region. Pompeo's plan may eventually be another U.S. failure in the Middle East unless he can convince both Trump and the regional actors to get along.
 
Azerbaijan takes measures to turn Khankandi into safe city - VİDEO

News line

Russian investigators have evidence of Ukraine link to Crocus terrorists
22:24 28.03.2024
Committee members of the EU Council will visit the South Caucasus region
19:48 28.03.2024
Bayern to pay Thomas Tuchel 12M euro compensation
Bayern to pay Thomas Tuchel 12M euro compensation
19:00 28.03.2024
Crocus City Hall terrorists took drugs before attack - law enforcement agencies
Crocus City Hall terrorists took drugs before attack - law enforcement agencies
18:33 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan, UN Development Program mull future co-op
18:00 28.03.2024
An Independent Trade Union Established within International Eurasia Press Fund - First in NGO sector - PHOTOS
17:39 28.03.2024
Italian PM condemns Macron for idea of sending troops to Ukraine
Italian PM condemns Macron for idea of sending troops to Ukraine
17:23 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan lends clarity to color requirement for taxis
17:02 28.03.2024
Isaac Herzog: Israel has no greater friend than US, and US has no greater friend than Israel
Isaac Herzog: Israel has no greater friend than US, and US has no greater friend than Israel
16:45 28.03.2024
Nigerian army eliminates over 200 militants in 2 weeks
16:30 28.03.2024
Armored Vehicle Coalition for Ukraine launched in Poland
Armored Vehicle Coalition for Ukraine launched in Poland
16:15 28.03.2024
Russia strengthens transport security measures after terror attack at Crocus City Hall
Russia strengthens transport security measures after terror attack at Crocus City Hall
15:55 28.03.2024
Türkiye plays an important role between Russia and Ukraine - says political scientist Ismail Cingoz
15:45 28.03.2024
2 schoolchildren detained in France on suspicion of sending bomb threats
15:35 28.03.2024
Ski resort in Georgia hit by avalanche
Ski resort in Georgia hit by avalanche
15:26 28.03.2024
Another protest against French colonialism held in New Caledonia, Azerbaijani flag raised
Another protest against French colonialism held in New Caledonia, Azerbaijani flag raised
15:15 28.03.2024
Media: US did not transfer all information about terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall to Russia
15:00 28.03.2024
Movement ‘Together’ calls on Armenia’s parliamentary forces to express vote of no confidence in Pashinyan
14:41 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan to participate in international trade fair in Istanbul
Azerbaijan to participate in international trade fair in Istanbul
14:32 28.03.2024
Le Pen accuses French government of fraud
14:22 28.03.2024
Armenian Government Grapples with Internal Division on Village Return Issue - Ishkhan Verdiyan talks on Ednews
14:12 28.03.2024
Ammunition found along route of Crocus City Hall terrorists
Ammunition found along route of Crocus City Hall terrorists
13:41 28.03.2024
Expert Ilyas Huseynov Predicts Peaceful Return of these territories to Azerbaijan
13:20 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 29
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 29
12:55 28.03.2024
Russian MFA concerned about upcoming Armenia-US-EU meeting
12:23 28.03.2024
Secret Points of Pashinyan's Meeting with French Representative: Is Peace Agreement Signing Imminent?
12:00 28.03.2024
Armenia announces recruitment of border guards to work at Zvartnots
Armenia announces recruitment of border guards to work at Zvartnots
11:47 28.03.2024
The US-Armenia-EU Joint Conference is a part of the pressure plan on Azerbaijan - MP Konul Nurullayeva
11:30 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan’s central bank reduces discount rate
Azerbaijan’s central bank reduces discount rate
11:23 28.03.2024
CSTO chief: ‘Yerevan doesn’t participate in our work, but there are no statements about suspension’
11:13 28.03.2024
Ammunition found in Khankandi
Ammunition found in Khankandi
11:00 28.03.2024
Russia had been aware of preparation for terrorist attack at Crocus - says intelligience chief
10:46 28.03.2024
Scholtz reveals date of his last telephone conversation with Putin
Scholtz reveals date of his last telephone conversation with Putin
10:33 28.03.2024
Head of the SSS: France is inciting Armenia to a new war
10:21 28.03.2024
Are we in the brink of World War III? - Pundit talks on Ednews
10:10 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan's National Security: Reflecting on 105 Years of Defending Sovereignty
09:55 28.03.2024
Hikmat Hajiyev: Rasmussen fell in forgetfulness to attach payment to his report
09:35 28.03.2024
Hand grenades found in Kalbajar
09:25 28.03.2024
Titanic 'door' prop that kept Rose alive sells for $718,750
Titanic 'door' prop that kept Rose alive sells for $718,750
08:50 28.03.2024
Twitch's biggest streamer diagnosed with cancer diagnosis at 32
23:55 27.03.2024
Hamısı