How Moscow reacts if Azerbaijan launches all-out attack in Nagorno-Karabakh? - Paul Goble explains | Eurasia Diary -

1 April, Wednesday

How Moscow reacts if Azerbaijan launches all-out attack in Nagorno-Karabakh? - Paul Goble explains

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Recent occasions in Nagorno-Karabakh frontline flared up the conflict between Azerbaijan Armenia. Apart from this, the leaders of the two nations have started to diplomatic fighting in an international arena.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Nagorno-Karabakh made its decision as Azerbaijan when leaving USSR at 74th Session of United Nations General Assembly on 25 September. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that Karabakh is Azerbaijan in Sochi, the annual meeting of Valdai Club on 3 October.

Eurasia Diary asked the former special adviser to US State Secretary, political analyst Paul A. Goble for explaining Armenian PM's statement.


"The Armenian Prime Minister is incorrect. Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh, became independent all at the same time. Suggesting otherwise is rewriting history, however much some in Nagorno-Karabakh or in Yerevan might have liked the alternative scenario."

Most scholars accept that Russia is considered the main player in South Caucasus. Russia is also a member of OSCE Minsk Group which regulates negotiation between conflicting sides. P. Goble thinks that Moscow is not interested in the solution of the conflict.

"Moscow not only is not in a position to prevent further violence but benefits from keeping the conflict going. It encourages now one side and now the other in order to implement its classic divide and rule strategy for the South Caucasus."

Armenia claims that Nagorno-Karabakh should be involved in negotiation processes. It was also expressed in United Nations General Assembly by Nikol Pashinyan. American expert analyses the positions of Azerbaijan and Armenia on Nagorno Karabak conflict.

"I have never believed that a settlement was likely because the positions of the two sides are so far apart, Armenia insisting on the right of self-determination and Azerbaijan on the territorial integrity of the state. A radical form of autonomy like the Aaland Islands might be a good idea, but I see no willingness among Armenians to consider it," political analyst considers.

Aaland is islands of Finland which were granted a high level of autonomy. The islands were populated by Swedish. The State Department of Aaland represents the Finnish central government and performs many administrative duties. Aaland has its own postal administration but still uses the Finnish five-digit postal code system.

Aaland has its own flag and has issued its own postage stamps since 1984. It runs its own police force, and is an associate member of the Nordic Council. The islands are demilitarised, and the population is exempt from conscription.

The Aaland Islands are guaranteed representation in the Finnish parliament, to which they elect one representative. Aaland also has a different system of political parties from the mainland

Although negotiations are continuing the situation on the frontline doesn't seem like a ceasefire.The death of soldiers and civilians are reported in every week.

"Talks continue because the international community insists upon them and because the two governments benefit from simultaneously showing themselves prepared to seek peace but at the same time defending the positions of the to sides. Only by having talks continue can they achieve both at the same time," American political analyst said while explaining the mission of the negotiations.

Former diplomat also touched upon the case of military confrontation.

"If Azerbaijan were to launch an all-out attack, Moscow would intervene on the side of Armenia and the Western powers would demand a ceasefire. If Baku ignored that Moscow would likely orchestrate serious political changes in Azerbaijan," Paul Goble concluded.


Ulvi Ahmedli

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