Since taking office, Trump has routinely touted the expansion of the US economy that began under Barack Obama and has largely continued under his administration. He has championed an economic boom in hundreds of tweets.

 

“An economic miracle is taking place in the United States,” Trump declared in his State of the Union address this year.

 

All the while, the president has ignored warnings from economists about the prospects of a global trade war and sought to weaponize tariffs with China and even traditional US allies such as Canada and the European Union.

 

Despite Trump’s claims to the contrary, those trade practices have injected uncertainty into the markets. The brunt of the impact of the president’s tariffs have meanwhile been borne by the US agricultural industry and American consumers.

 

If the economy does sour and the trade war continues, Republican strategists said, Trump’s path to victory over the next 14 months might soon be riddled with challenges.

 

“A lot of voters are willing to look past the tweets and the chaos, because the economy has been so strong,” said Alex Conant, a Republican operative who served as a top aide to Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “But if the economy is weak then they’ll be less forgiving for the aspects of his presidency that they don’t like.”

 

Polling from earlier this year found that 56% of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the economy. White House advisers clung to the new high as a counterpoint to Trump’s broader approval ratings, which on average rank among the lowest of any US president in modern history.

 

“People will vote for somebody they don’t like if they think it’s good for them,” the White House chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, said this year, characterizing Trump’s message going into 2020.

 

“You hate to sound like a cliché, but are you better off than you were four years ago? It’s pretty simple, right? It’s the economy, stupid. I think that’s easy,” he added.

 

Historically, most US presidential elections have centered on the economy, with voters consistently ranking issues such as jobs as a top priority.

 

Democrats, who have already framed the 2020 race as a referendum on Trump, have insisted the economic expansion during his presidency has disproportionately benefitted the wealthiest Americans.

 

Campaigning in New Hampshire on Thursday, Trump maintained he had ushered in unprecedented economic progress.

 

“You have no choice but to vote for me, because your 401(k), everything, is going to be down the tubes,” Trump said at a rally in Manchester.