China GDP likely to slow to 6.1% in July-Sept

Median estimate forecasts lowest quarterly growth since 1992

Economy 14:30 08.10.2019

China's real gross domestic product for the July-September quarter has continued to slow, to 6.1% on the year, dragged down by sagging exports and production, according to the average forecast of economists surveyed by Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News.

The prolonged trade war with the U.S., worsening cash-flow problems of businesses and a mountain of local government debt are beginning to put downward pressure on the economy.

Economists had expected China's economy to grow at 5.8% to 6.4% in the July-September quarter. The median estimate of 6.1% was the lowest quarterly growth rate since 1992, when comparable data became available.

China's economy has slowed mainly due to the prolonged trade row with the U.S. The administration of President Donald Trump imposed the fourth round of tariffs against China in September. Cheng Shi, chief economist at ICBCI, said the momentum of investment and production has continued to slow, adding that manufacturers might accelerate shifting of production overseas.

Shen Jianguang, chief economist at JD Digits, said exports that are affected by U.S. tariffs and tighter controls on properties are adding greater downward pressure on the economy.

China's economy was expected to grow at 6.2% in 2019, and 6.0% in 2020 and 2021.

The Chinese Communist Party aims to double GDP in 2020 compared with the figure in 2010. To achieve the goal, China's economy will need to grow at 6.2% on average in 2019 and 2020. But eight out of the 20 economists responded that the Chinese economy will only grow in the 5% range in 2020.

The focus will be how much stimulus measures will be able to offset downward pressure on the economy. Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays, said, "We think bringing forward the 2020 quota of local government special bonds will support infrastructure investment."

Fan Xiaochen, director at MUFG Bank, said there is plenty of room for fiscal policy, including support for private companies by cutting value-added taxes and commissions.

 

IEPF issued a statement regarding Azerbaijani children at the UN Human Rights Council

News line

Trump sets 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea
12:00 08.07.2025
Israeli army says 5 soldiers killed, 14 injured in northern Gaza
11:45 08.07.2025
Brazil’s president sounds alarm over multilateralism crisis, condemns Gaza genocide at BRICS summit
11:30 08.07.2025
Protest Held in London Backing Pro-Palestine March Organizers Accused of Offences
11:15 08.07.2025
Japan to make diplomatic efforts to ensure implementation of Israel-Iran ceasefire: Top diplomat
11:00 08.07.2025
Trump Holds Talks with Netanyahu at the White House
10:45 08.07.2025
Trump says US has 'scheduled Iran talks'
10:30 08.07.2025
Trump says US will supply weapons to Ukraine
10:15 08.07.2025
Priorities of Azerbaijan's international development policy discussed
10:00 08.07.2025
US to impose 25% duties on imports from Kazakhstan from August
09:45 08.07.2025
Plans for border delimitation, demarcation with Armenia discussed in Baku
09:30 08.07.2025
Israel wants to coordinate with US on possibility of new strikes on Iran
09:15 08.07.2025
Netanyahu nominates Trump for Nobel Peace Prize
09:00 08.07.2025
Geno rejects signing of 38-year-old Jamie Vardy
21:00 07.07.2025
Gaza death toll passes 57,500 as Israeli attacks continue unabated
20:45 07.07.2025
Russian emergencies minister arrives in Baku
20:25 07.07.2025
Trump due to meet Netanyahu at White House
20:15 07.07.2025
Russia attacks recruitment centers in Ukraine's Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia
20:00 07.07.2025
Pezeshkian says Israel attempted assassination against him
19:45 07.07.2025
Iran has military capability to strike Israel daily for 2 years, IRGC adviser says
19:20 07.07.2025
US envoy says ‘satisfied’ with Lebanese response on roadmap to disarm Hezbollah
19:00 07.07.2025
Peskov: Russia, Azerbaijan should remain close partners, allies
18:45 07.07.2025
The Gulf Observer: Armenians' destruction of Azerbaijan's cultural heritage - vandalism against all humanity
18:30 07.07.2025
Official: Nearly 1M foreigners arrived in Azerbaijan in 5 months of 2025
18:15 07.07.2025
Chief of General Staff of Azerbaijan Army visits Saudi Arabia
18:00 07.07.2025
Israeli PM approved Yemen airstrikes during his flight to US
17:45 07.07.2025
Expert: ECO Summit in Khankendi confirmed member countries' desire for inclusive, multipolar world
17:30 07.07.2025
AZAL introduces new online service
17:15 07.07.2025
Poland imposes checks on German and Lithuanian borders amid migration fears
17:00 07.07.2025
Saudi Arabia raises August oil prices for Asia, Europe buyers
16:45 07.07.2025
EU Reporter: Karabakh region became platform for int'l forums
16:15 07.07.2025
Georgian PM says direct foreign interference in democratic elections failed
16:00 07.07.2025
Typhoon Danas kills two in Taiwan, injures over 500
15:45 07.07.2025
'Coalition of the Willing' may fall apart over Starmer-Macron conflict
15:30 07.07.2025
Former Adjara head hospitalized with gunshot wound in Georgia
15:15 07.07.2025
Scientists reveal how caffeine slows down aging
15:00 07.07.2025
Thailand to offer US more trade concessions to avert 36% tariff
14:45 07.07.2025
Putin dismisses transport minister
14:30 07.07.2025
Israel carries out strikes on Houthi-controlled power station, ports across Yemen
14:15 07.07.2025
UK to name Iran as one of its biggest threats
14:00 07.07.2025
Hamısı