China GDP likely to slow to 6.1% in July-Sept

Median estimate forecasts lowest quarterly growth since 1992

Economy 14:30 08.10.2019

China's real gross domestic product for the July-September quarter has continued to slow, to 6.1% on the year, dragged down by sagging exports and production, according to the average forecast of economists surveyed by Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News.

The prolonged trade war with the U.S., worsening cash-flow problems of businesses and a mountain of local government debt are beginning to put downward pressure on the economy.

Economists had expected China's economy to grow at 5.8% to 6.4% in the July-September quarter. The median estimate of 6.1% was the lowest quarterly growth rate since 1992, when comparable data became available.

China's economy has slowed mainly due to the prolonged trade row with the U.S. The administration of President Donald Trump imposed the fourth round of tariffs against China in September. Cheng Shi, chief economist at ICBCI, said the momentum of investment and production has continued to slow, adding that manufacturers might accelerate shifting of production overseas.

Shen Jianguang, chief economist at JD Digits, said exports that are affected by U.S. tariffs and tighter controls on properties are adding greater downward pressure on the economy.

China's economy was expected to grow at 6.2% in 2019, and 6.0% in 2020 and 2021.

The Chinese Communist Party aims to double GDP in 2020 compared with the figure in 2010. To achieve the goal, China's economy will need to grow at 6.2% on average in 2019 and 2020. But eight out of the 20 economists responded that the Chinese economy will only grow in the 5% range in 2020.

The focus will be how much stimulus measures will be able to offset downward pressure on the economy. Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays, said, "We think bringing forward the 2020 quota of local government special bonds will support infrastructure investment."

Fan Xiaochen, director at MUFG Bank, said there is plenty of room for fiscal policy, including support for private companies by cutting value-added taxes and commissions.

 

IEPF issued a statement regarding Azerbaijani children at the UN Human Rights Council

News line

Russia accuses Ukrainian military chief of ordering downing of war prisoner plane
22:10 05.07.2025
Türkiye supports firefighting operations in Syria’s Latakia
22:00 05.07.2025
UNRWA calls for immediate fuel delivery to Israel-blockaded Gaza before shutdown of basic services
21:45 05.07.2025
Pashinyan: Armenia needs new constitution
21:20 05.07.2025
UN chief condemns Russia's recent 'series of large-scale' attacks on Ukraine
21:00 05.07.2025
Kazakh servicemen arrive in Azerbaijan to participate in Tarlan - 2025 exercise
20:45 05.07.2025
Erdogan: US has crucial role in achieving ceasefire in Gaza
20:20 05.07.2025
Building collapse in Pakistan kills 15
19:45 05.07.2025
Turkish FM Fidan to attend 17th BRICS Leaders Summit in Rio de Janeiro
19:30 05.07.2025
Australia pledges $283M for green energy project by explosives maker
19:10 05.07.2025
OPEC+ speeds up oil output hikes, adds 548,000 bpd in August
18:45 05.07.2025
Inter completes signing of Ange-Yoan Bonny from Parma
18:20 05.07.2025
Turkish president sees Zangazur corridor 'as part of the geoeconomic revolution'
18:00 05.07.2025
Turkish president urges Azerbaijan, Russia to show restrain amid tension
17:45 05.07.2025
China says war 'not a solution' to Iranian nuclear issue
17:15 05.07.2025
At least 18 people injured after fire alert on Ryanair plane in Majorca as passengers abandon jet & leap from wing
17:00 05.07.2025
Azerbaijani PM meets with UNESCAP executive secretary
16:45 05.07.2025
Lebanese president affirms coordination with Syria, warns against sectarian tensions
16:15 05.07.2025
21 killed in Israeli strikes on tents, school-turned-shelters in Gaza Strip
16:00 05.07.2025
Turkish construction sector takes on international projects worth $6.2B in first half of 2025
15:45 05.07.2025
Azerbaijani woman wrestler becomes European champion
15:30 05.07.2025
Mayor: Death toll in Russian attacks on Kyiv reached two
15:15 05.07.2025
Texas floods kill 24 people and leave many missing from girls' summer camp
14:45 05.07.2025
Conor McGregor has interest in White House fight after Trump's UFC idea
14:30 05.07.2025
Netanyahu era sees 40% surge in Israeli settlements in occupied West Bank
14:15 05.07.2025
Equatorial Guinea sues France in UN court to block sale of Paris mansion
14:00 05.07.2025
US president 'disappointed' over phone call with Putin
13:45 05.07.2025
Academy of Azerbaijan`s State Security Service hosts graduation ceremony
13:30 05.07.2025
Azerbaijan and Pakistan ink memo in Khankendi
13:15 05.07.2025
Trump says there could be Gaza deal next week
13:00 05.07.2025
First flight from Türkiye to Syria launched
12:45 05.07.2025
US marks its 249th anniversary of independence
12:30 05.07.2025
Azerbaijan's role in regional integration discussed at London conference
12:00 05.07.2025
Uzbek Minister: Mirziyoyev's visit to Azerbaijan crucial for dev’t of transport links
11:45 05.07.2025
Trump says US will start talks with China on TikTok deal this week
11:30 05.07.2025
Prime Minister of Pakistan Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif concludes visit to Azerbaijan
11:15 05.07.2025
Pakistani premier proposes low-emissions corridor at Economic Cooperation Organization summit
11:00 05.07.2025
Rwanda pledges to deliver on its part of US-brokered peace deal with DR Congo
10:45 05.07.2025
Hezbollah rejects calls to disarm before end of Israeli ‘aggression’ against Lebanon
10:30 05.07.2025
Trump says Gaza ceasefire deal may come next week after ‘positive’ Hamas response
10:15 05.07.2025
Hamısı