Azerbaijan's liquids supply for 2023 is forecast to rise by 59,000 barrels per day to average 0.8 million barrels per day, according to the voluntary production adjustments agreed upon at the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, the OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report from December 2022 reports.

“Growth is forecast to come from the Shah Deniz and Absheron condensate projects. Production could rise further after output starts up at the Azeri Central East project in 2023,” the statement reads.

Moreover, the statement notes that liquid supply in Azerbaijan is estimated to decline year-on-year by 27,000 barrels per day to an average of 0.7 million barrels per day for 2022.

“This has been revised down by 21,000 barrels per day due to downward revisions in 3Q22 and lower-than-expected production in major oil fields in 4Q22. The main declines in legacy fields are expected to be offset by ramp-ups in other fields, such as the BP-led consortium’s Shah Deniz field that has increased gas production capacity in the Azeri sector of the Caspian Sea,” the statement reads.

The statement also notes that Azerbaijan’s liquid production in October increased month-on-month by a minor 7,000 barrels per day to an average of 0.7 million barrels per day.

“Azerbaijan's liquids production in October increased m-o-m by a minor 7 tb/d to average 0.7 mb/d, although this was down by 50 tb/d y-o-y. Crude production averaged 551 tb/d, with NGLs output at 134 tb/d, according to official sources,” the statement reads.

Since April 2020, OPEC and non-OPEC countries have entered into an agreement on the reduction of daily oil output volumes.

At the 19th Ministerial Meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC countries, Azerbaijan supported the decision to increase daily crude oil output by 400,000 barrels per month in August-December 2021 and to extend the Declaration of Cooperation until late 2022, with partial adjustments to the base level of oil production from May 2022.

From May 2022 till the end of the year, the calculation of Azerbaijan's oil production obligations is to be continued on the basis of the current level.

Additionally, Azerbaijan has supported the decision of OPEC plus to cut daily crude oil output by 2m barrels from November 2022 taken during the 33rd Ministerial Meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC members. The new commitments of the participating countries of the Declaration of Cooperation were determined based on their quotas in August 2022. The term of the agreement was extended until December 31, 2023. Moreover, Azerbaijan has agreed to keep in force the decision taken in October 2022 on the daily oil production cuts at the 34th Ministerial Meeting of the OPEC+.