Ednews presents an interview with a Georgian expert on South Caucasus issues, Arnold Stepanyan.
- Mr. Arnold Stepanyan, what role have external actors, such as Russia, Turkey, and international organizations, played and are playing in the Azerbaijan-Armenia relationship?
- The role of Russia is traditionally great, historically - with its weakening, the vacuum is filled by other regional players, such as Turkey and Iran. The Western world is also significantly increasing its presence, especially against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. I think this process will change the geopolitical balance of power in the region in the near future. As for international organizations, I can say that there is a sharp decline in trust in them all over the world. We are no exception.
- Have there been any attempts to sign the peace aggrement through diplomatic means or negotiations? What are the main challenges or barriers to achieving lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
- Attempts to sign the peace agreement through diplomacy were made repeatedly, but as can be seen from the results, this mechanism was used more as an attempt to play for time, which ultimately resulted in a war. A lasting peace can be achieved only if there is political will on both sides. Naturally, taking into account the fundamental interests of the world and regionally relevant neighboring powers. In the presence of these factors, most of the controversial topics will go into the category of technical issues and will be resolved.
- Will it be possible for both nations to live together in the future? Many years ago, both nations lived together in peace and tranquility. Could this be done again? What steps should both countries take to address this?
- World practice shows that countries and peoples that have been burned in confrontation with each other understand the value of peace and good neighborliness best of all. There are many examples, both in Europe and Asia. I am sure that harmony in relations between Armenians and Azerbaijanis is quite achievable in the future, given the many values that unite both peoples.
However, now, the first thing to do is to extinguish any actions that incite hatred and enmity towards each other, start establishing direct contacts, use public diplomacy, and give the green light to the most active representatives of both societies—businessmen, who always find a common language much faster than others.
- How do you evaluate the activities of the Russian peacekeepers stationed in Karabakh? Is it possible for the Turks to replace the activities of the Russians in the region? If it is possible, what would be Turkey's contributions to both countries—Azerbaijan and Armenia?
- I have a positive attitude towards any peacekeepers, unless, of course, they have in mind the intention of revenge. It can be said for sure that peacekeepers must enjoy the trust of both conflicting sides. As practice shows, Russian peacekeepers do not enjoy the confidence of any of the parties, while Turkey positions itself as a country supporting one of the parties. If the goal is not to strengthen the region but to extinguish the conflict, then it would be better to consider mediators who adhere to strict neutrality in this matter. For example, theoretically, one could consider the participation of such countries as Brazil, Argentina, and Australia, possibly with the financial support of the UN or the European Union.
I do not want to ignore the potential role of Turkey in this matter. Today, Turkey has great potential to resolve this conflict, but first of all, it should improve relations with Armenia. There are signs of progress in Armenia-Turkey relations, but so far these are only timid steps with an eye on them.
- How has the relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia impacted the wider region, particularly neighboring countries and regional organizations?
- The regulation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan is the key to the prosperity of the entire region. Despite the ongoing rhetoric of the war, frequent incidents on the border, and the guarantees of security of the Armenians of Karabakh suspended in the air, I am sure that the politicians of both countries clearly understand that the crossing of the red line this time can lead to unpredictable consequences for all parties.
Ulviyya Shahin
