After the missile and mortar attacks of ISIS  throughout 2016 to Kilis and other cities situated in Syrian border , Turkey initiated an operation called Operation Euphrates Shield in Syria together with Free Syrian Army in August 2016, arrived to Al Bab in March 2017 and declared the end of the operation at this point after clearing the region from ISIS militants.

The reason for the extension of the Operation Euphrates Shield to Al-Bab is to capture the strategically important city and break the connection of ISIS with Rakka in order to weaken and destroy the power of terror organization. On the other hand, the cause of Turkey's inability to go further in the region despite its desire is reported as the support given by the United States to YPG. Therefore, the Turkish armed forces had planned to enter Menbic under control of YPG before the capture of Al-Bab but had to step back because of military support given to YPG by the USA in this region. The fact that the ideas and plans of Turkey and the United States do not fall in this respect might create a crisis between the two sides. The USA carried out the Rakka operation with the support given to the Democratic Forces of Syria led by YPG, not with Turkey, and Turkey, which is an ally of the USA, considered it as a big mistake. The weapons given to the YPG by the US in the Rakka operation have also attracted the great reaction of Turkey.

Map of Syria before Operation Euprates Shield. Source: suriyegundemi.com

1 July 2017 Syrian map. Source: suriyegundemi.com

A second reason for the start of the Euphrates' Operation was not to allow to combine the cantons of Afrin, which  YPG proclaimed in the west of Syria, but which were not recognized by the Syrian government, and the Cobian and Al-Jazeera cantons located further east. This plan seems to have been realized with the Operation Euphrates Shield as of March 2017.

In recent days, allegations of new operation to Afrin by Turkey have been revealed.

Turkey, which has recently hit YPG positions in Afrin, is planning to organize a new military operation with FSA in this region.

The main reason for the operation is considered as prevention of attacks of YPG militants, now and in the future, who have recently entered Turkey from Afrin.

The attack of YPG towards FSA in this region also disturbs Turkey.

On the other hand, about a week ago,” Milliyet” newspapers claimed that most of the Russian troops were pulled from Afrin.

Although the Russian side did not approve it officially, some sources from the Russian media published this case based on “Milliyet” newspaper. According to the report of the “Milliyet”, a large part of the Russian forces abandoned Afrin and withdrew to the Shiite town of Nubul, under the control of the Assad regime, and a small group of intelligence officers will leave the area when the operation begins.

On the other hand, Al-Masdar reported that 150 Russian troops were deployed in Afrin as of July 3rd.  The arrival of Russian soldiers in the city coincided with the commemoration ceremony held in the region named by YPG "The Martyrs Cemetery".

Source: Al Masdar

What does the Russian army do in Afrin?

YPG spokesman Redur Xelil said that on 20 March they had signed an agreement with Russia and that Russia would be deployed in Afrin under the agreement, and that the Russian army would provide military training to YPG fighters. Additionally, Xelil had stated that there were no direct relations with Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his speech on May 15th that they did not need to arm the Syrian Kurds but they would continue to work with the Kurds.

Of course, if we consider these two mutual discourses, it is hardly realistic that Russia will completely break its relationship with YPG. In fact, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mariya Zaharova reported yesterday:

“What kind of country Syria will be after the present crisis should be determined among these peoples again. New Syrian Constitution must be accepted together. In this process, the Kurdish minority in Syria is one of the important factors. Therefore, their view must be taken into account".

In spite of this attitude of Russia towards YPG, it is highly probable that Turkey will launch Afrin operation based on the 'survivability' factor.

How does Russia make concessions from Afrin?

First of all, Russia, unlike Turkey, is pursuing flexible alliance strategy in Syria. More specifically, Russia is partnering with states such as Turkey and Iran, which have interests in the region, and the Assad government at the same time. Furthermore, as we have mentioned above, Russia supports YPG in certain issues. If we take the issue from this perspective, we can imagine that Russia can make concessions from the small ally YPG in this region in order not to lose its larger ally. IF we qualify the possibilities in detailed:

• Russia reported that reconciliation on the contract for the delivery of S-400 missile defense systems to Turkey has been reached, but there is no agreement yet on the amount of credit. It will be of great importance to move together in Syria to ensure this agreement.
• The natural gas, which will be transferred from Russia to Turkey via the Black Sea in the frame of the Turkish Current project, has great importance in this ally.
• The decision of conflict zones in Syria, which has been under the framework of the Astana negotiations since January 2017, and in this context the issue of the deployment of Russian and Turkish forces in Idlib.
• Such a plan was reported about two weeks ago by the Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin.
• Apart from these reasons, Russia's attitude toward the United States. Indeed, last month the United States shot the plane of the Assad army, the main ally of Russia, and Russia responded harshly. It is also possible that Russia might leave YPG, which is in cooperation with the United States for this reason, at Afrin alone.

Mirali Mirhashimli

Translated by Narmin Ismail