The attentions of Russia and the West are still on Karabakh that is still unresolved and under discussion. Pashinyan, who eschewed Russia and took refuge in the West, or knocked on Russia's door when things got tough, accepted both meetings in Brussels on December 15 and a trilateral meeting on November 26 in Sochi, Russia.
It should be noted that a number of important issues related to both the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as Karabakh, remain unfinished. In addition, the recent armed incidents around the border and the losses suffered by both sides are the integral part of the issue.
Another issue is the organisation of the Sochi meeting by Russia, which is trying to overtake the West, or to prove its presence in the Caucasus. The main thing is that Pashinyan, who has recently been trying to shun Russia's gaze, especially in the issue of demarcation and delimitation of borders, could not refuse the last invitation of the Kremlin. However, Pashinyan himself requested a meeting between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Brussels on December 15 at the invitation of Charles Michel. By the way, the pro-Western Pashinyan usually begs his close ally Russia for help when he is in trouble. Recently, the Prime Minister, who mainly accords with the West, is trying to avoid Russia's attention. However, at what cost can Pashinyan's lukewarm attitude to Russia cause him to pay?
Speaking to EDNews.net, Samir Humbatov, a political analyst at the Atlas Research Centre provided answers for the above questions.
"In fact, Pashinyan is trying to avoid a Russian-mediated trilateral meeting. The only reason for this is that Pashinyan, who came to power with the generous support of the West, does not trust Russia and, most importantly, refuses to agree on demarcation and delimitation on the basis of maps of Soviet Russia. Pashinyan wants to do this of his own free will and Western intervention, and he wants to push away all three maps left over from the Soviet Union, including the map in the 1920s, in the 1950s, and in the 1970s and 1980s. Although the options suggested by Russia did not work for Pashinyan, Russia still intends to determine the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the basis of this map within the framework of a tripartite agreement.
As for what will happen to Pashinyan if he continues to distance himself from Russia, I think it will be primarily related to Armenia's internal affairs. You know that although the people support Pashinyan, the army does not want to obey him completely. Because the old army generals in Armenia still trusts the words of Kocharyan and Sargsyan, former members of the Karabakh clan. I think as Pashinyan resists, Russia will try to turn those forces against Pashinyan. This will become a serious problem for Pashinyan in his own country.
Samir Humbatov commented on the reasons for calling the trilateral meeting of Russia on November 26, preventing the West. He also clarified Russia's interests as a mediator in Azerbaijani-Armenian relations.
"Russia is actually very afraid of losing Armenia and does not want to leave Pashinyan alone just because of his pro-Western stance. At the same time, Russia manupulates by taking into account the sympathy of the people inside Armenia for Pashinyan. In other words, although Putin did not react harshly to Armenian PM's intention to visit Brussels, he put forward the Sochi meeting as a precautionary measure in order to prevent Armenia to act against Russia's will. Putin also wants to give Pashinyan an ultimatum before meeting with his Western allies.
I would not say that Russia is trying to keep Azerbaijan under control. Because Russia has almost lost Azerbaijan, which is brotherly with Turkey. Russia's fear is not to lose Armenia but to keep its hand on the South Caucasus through it.
The political analyst said that no document will be signed at the Sochi meeting, as at the Brussels meeting that was mentioned by Armenian officials. He described the November 26 meeting as Russia's attempt to distance Pashinyan from the West.
"I suppose no document will be signed at the Sochi meeting, as at the meeting in Brussels. Because there is a very short time left for the meeting. If there was such an idea, it would have been stated it in a statement by Kremlin. As I mentioned in the previous question, Putin gave a kind of warning to Pashinyan in a trilateral meeting before his visit to Europe, to warn him not to go beyond the red line drawn by Russia. At the same time, Russia wants to resolve the issue of demarcation and delimitation in accordance with its plan without Western intervention."
By Elnur Enveroglu
