“The rhetoric used by the Kremlin as well as the ultimatum set by Lavrov indicates a danger of escalation, which we have not seen in the past three decades in Europe”.  This statement came from Sebastian Schäffer, expert on Eastern European studies while commenting on the rise of tension and military escalation between NATO and Russia in the region following the failure of negotiations in Geneva and Brussels between two sides.

According to Sergei Ryabakov, the deputy foreign minister of Russia, the United States and its allies are not ready to agree on Russia’s proposals on security guarantees. It is unreasonable to hold a new round of talks with the United States and European countries on the new situation with security in Eastern Europe.

In his comment, Sebastian believed that there were several scenarios how the situation could develop, with a multitude of factors contributing to it. He would describe three that I see most likely:

“First is worst case. Russian Federation is willing to do whatever it takes to prevent Ukraine from further closing to NATO as well as the EU. The excessive amounts of demands are impossible to be met. As a result, an escalation is imminent.  Russian troops further invade Ukraine, serious sanctions will be imposed on Moscow, a military confrontation with NATO cannot be excluded”.

Second is best case; If a diplomatic solution is found, some demands are met, which allow the Kremlin to save its face, negotiations will continue. A long-term solution will not be able to be reached, but rather the status quo remains”.

Third is Realpolitic; The Putin regime is testing how committed the US/NATO as well as the EU member states are really to a severe reaction on a possible invasion of Ukraine. Who and what would actually be targeted by sanctions? Are the Western partners ready to fight for Ukraine’s independence? Depending on the estimated costs resulting from the assessment of these questions, another (limited) Russian military operation is likely. Who and what would actually be targeted by sanctions? Are the Western partners ready to fight for Ukraine’s independence? Depending on the estimated costs resulting from the assessment of these questions, another (limited) Russian military operation is likely. We can also not exclude a „black swan event“: a deliberate incident immediately starts a war in which all parties will be involved. This is a severe and potentially uncontrollable threat and should be avoided at all costs. The best way to achieve this is a clear and unified communication of the consequences for the Russian Federation, if any further escalation in Ukraine will happen”.

It should be noted that the extensive talks were held between US and Russian officials in Geneva, Switzerland on January 10, Russian and NATO officials in Brussels on January 12, and Russian and European officials on January 13.

The talks mainly focused on the imposition of security measures in Europe, as well as Russia’s proposals on security guarantees.  However, there were serious disagreements between the parties in the security talks as both sides failed to come to a common understanding on maintaining stability in Europe. 

Yunis Abdullayev