Syrian regime forces backed by militias are massing close to Aleppo for an offensive to retake the divided city — signalling the likely end of a ceasefire that has brought eight weeks of relative calm to the war-torn country.
Aleppo, Syria’s largest city and formerly its economic powerhouse, has been torn between government and rebel forces for three and a half years, with the eastern suburbs in particular suffering widespread devastation from relentless bombardment by Assad’s air force.
Wael al-Halqi, the Syrian prime minister, told a Russian delegation visiting Damascus this week that Syrian and Russian forces were working together on preparations to “liberate Aleppo and to block all illegal armed groups which have not joined or have broken the ceasefire deal”.
Hundreds of regime fighters are being transferred to southern Aleppo from the Assad coastal stronghold of Latakia. Colonel Suheil al-Hassan, head of the notorious Tiger forces paramilitary group, has been named as commander for the offensive.
As fighting intensified south of the city yesterday there were reports that 20 Iranian and Lebanese fighters had been killed by friendly fire from troops loyal to Assad. Government forces also launched fresh barrel-bomb assaults inside the city.
The rebel-held parts of Aleppo are controlled by a patchwork of armed groups. In the city centre, Free Syrian Army brigades and Islamic groups united under the banner of the Levant Front are the most powerful. The al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front has a strong presence to the south and west.
Aleppo is the only urban centre still held by mainstream rebel forces, and is their last stronghold in the north of the country. Idlib city, to the west of Aleppo, is held by an Islamist coalition dominated by Nusra Front, while Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, to the northeast, are held by Isis. Assad’s forces have regained large tracts of the western province of Latakia since the start of this year.
Iran, Assad’s closest ally, has sent 1,000 reinforcements to join the Aleppo offensive, according to local media. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has set up a base in the countryside north of the city. Eleven of its soldiers have been killed in Syria in the past week.
The Assad regime and Iran are the cornerstones of the Shia Muslim bloc challenging a Sunni bloc led by Saudi Arabia in a series of regional conflicts. Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia militia, is another key Assad ally, along with various Iraqi, Afghan and Pakistani militias. On the other side, many of the anti-Assad rebel brigades — which are overwhelmingly Sunni — have been supported by Saudi Arabia, as well as Turkey and Qatar.
Russia, Assad’s other key ally, appears reticent about plans to retake Aleppo, however — suggesting that cracks in the alliance are growing as the Kremlin seeks to rebuild its relations with NATO and Turkey. Sergei Rudskoy, Russia’s head of general staff, has directly contradicted Mr al-Halqi’s comments, saying that “no storming of the city of Aleppo is planned”, and that Russia will not take part in attacks on groups included in the ceasefire.
Having turned the tide of the conflict in Assad’s favour with a massive aerial campaign against mainstream rebel forces, Russia is now limiting its role to attacks against Isis and the Nusra Front. It also appears ready to heal its rift with Turkey, which shot down a Russian fighter jet in November.
Turkey, which is already hosting more than 2.5 million Syrian refugees, is alarmed by the prospect of a fresh wave of people fleeing from Aleppo across its border.
Rebel forces suffered a significant setback in February when the regime, backed by Russian air strikes, cut their main supply route from Turkey into the city. The last remaining route out of the rebel-held neighbourhoods for the 300,000 people still living there has since come under repeated attack from Kurdish forces.
A victory for the regime in Aleppo would deal a big blow to the opposition, which reconvened with Assad’s representatives for a third round of peace talks in Geneva yesterday (Wednesday). It is hoped that the negotiations can bring an end to the five-year conflict, which has left at least 250,000 people dead and more than half of the population displaced.
With a division of the country into areas controlled by the regime, the Kurds, and the rebels now looking likely, Aleppo has become a valuable prize.
The regime and the rebels continue to accuse each other of flouting the ceasefire, which was brokered by the US and Russia, and fighting has broken out in several areas. The Syrian National Coalition said on Tuesday: “By keeping silent over the regime’s ramping up of its forces around Aleppo, the international community risks appearing as indifferent and not showing the slightest consideration to the political solution or to the ‘cessation of hostilities’ agreement which cannot hold any further under such continued, widespread violations.”
The Times
