Recent events in the European Union shook the world agenda. Eurasia Diary took an interview from political analyst and columnist Paul A. Goble for the explanation of the situation.

What can you say about the future of EU in the background of Brexit and Italy-Poland problems? Will this events undermine trust among members?

-I think the EU will change with Brussels becoming less important rather than more in the short term at least. That isn't bad: unfortunately, the bureaucracy in Brussels is so interventionist that the absence of real democracy at the EU level is felt. Once the countries move to have real direct elections to an EU parliament, then the parliament can take control of the bureaucracy and it will be less of a problem than now. Most objections to the EU in the UK and elsewhere are about the bureaucracy not about the principle of union.

So, the idea of EU army emerges from bureaucracy, or is there any need?

-It is a bureaucratic-political ploy to force the US to change its position. the EU will eventually have an army once it becomes a confederation. For now, this is just a scarecrow to be used against the Americans.

Brexit, Itexit and so on are possible and real moves or as you said scarecrow actions?

-Brexit was a manufactured issue to help the extremists in the UK and Putin. Neither the UK nor Italy will in the end leave.

So, the structure change in EU is not needed to prevent Brexit or such kind of issues?

-That is part of the answer but I think the British are coming to recognize that they voted in a way that was not in their interest. Brussels won't change until the UK changes -- and that is coming, perhaps in days.

Ulvi Ahmedli