“Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO will significantly damage the security of Northern Europe”.

This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin while he was speaking in the meeting of leaders of the member countries of CSTO.  

According to his words, NATO expansion in the direction of Northern Europe towards Russian borders could oblige Moscow to take serious measures in the region.

At same time, a number of Russian officials have called on Sweden and Finland to reconsider their decisions to become a member of NATO. They warned both countries of new threats in the region.

Commenting on the issue, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharov said that the United States was opening Russia's hands by forcing Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

To clarify the issues related to NATO’s contribution to the security of Sweden and Finland, as well as the future threats posed by Moscow in the region in case of their decision to join NATO, Eurasia Diary conducted an interview with Sebastian Schäffer, expert on Central and Eastern European.

Sebastian Schäffer is Managing Director at the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM) as well as Secretary General of the Danube Rectors’ Conference (DRC) in Vienna and founder of SSC Europe, a competence network for Seminars, Simulations, and Consulting.

His areas of expertise include European Neighbourhood Policy, EU-Russia relations, Eastern Partnership (especially Moldova and Ukraine), EU integration as well as the EU Strategy for the Danube Region.

- Please tell us, what is the importance of NATO for the security of Finland and Sweden? What are the benefits of alliance for Northern Europe?

- Joining NATO increases both countries’ security and defence capabilities. Even if both are EU members, joining the alliance definitely provides additional safety. However, it is mainly a clear signal towards Moscow. After the Russian Federation declared war against Georgia in 2008, joining NATO has briefly been debated in Finland and Sweden. If Moscow fundamentally changes the security architecture in Europe, it is no surprise that “neutral”states seek different policies.

- Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO will significantly damage the security of Northern Europe. Please tell us, would Moscow dare to pose serious threats to Sweden and Finland in case of their decision to join NATO?

- What he probably means is the damage to the perceived security of his country. The Russian Federation will after Finland joins the alliance share an additional 1300 km of border with a NATO nation. While I would have had to a certain extent some understanding for the fear of Moscow to be encircled by NATO members and the possible offensive capacities, Putin should understand the desire of sovereign nations to seek membership in a defensive alliance to protect themselves, especially when a neighbouring country starts a completely unjustified war. While it might still take some time before both Sweden and Finland join NATO, the other Nordic members of the alliance Norway, Denmark, and Iceland, have already expressed their full solidarity with the two countries in case they would be threatened by the Kremlin.

- Do you think that NATO is strong and resilient to resist Russia in the Baltic Sea and cope with challenges and problems by Moscow in Northern Europe?

- If we look at how the Russian army seems to be currently already reaching its limits in the war against Ukraine, I do not see how NATO would not be able to deal with conventional threats possibly coming from Moscow. Depending on how you define problems, there might certainly be scenarios, which would challenge NATO’s resilience.

Yunis Abdullayev