Russia will give the Caucasus to Türkiye. This statement was made by Artur Khachikyan, doctor of political sciences at Stanford University. He said that Russia will deal with Ukraine more than the Caucasus.
But how realistic is it? Is it possible for Russia to move away from the Caucasus? If this happens, will Russia prove that it is weakened?
Britain historian and political analyst, author of books on Britain, Turkiye, and South Caucasus, Dr. Patrick Walsh clarified all these questions in his comment to Ednews.
P. Walsh said that Russian state interests lie in preventing Western influence within the Caucasus becoming a perceived threat to national security:
“During Tsarist and Soviet times the Russian state had the power to dominate the South Caucasus. It no longer has that power so it’s ambitions in the region are much more limited. The Ukraine war, whether won, lost or drawn by Russia will likely lead to a further diminishing of Russian power and influence. However, the Russian ability to act should it feel necessary to do so should not be underestimated. Ukraine has shown this. So, Russia will leave the South Caucasus if it can depend on governments there to facilitate its security requirements. This is why the government of Azerbaijan has been careful to maintain a close and neighbourly relationship with Moscow, despite criticism. It is in Azerbaijan’s interest to deal with the reality of Russian power, not how many might wish Russia to be. Russia needs to be encouraged to leave the South Caucasus in the same way Britain was encouraged to leave Ireland.
He emphasized that Russia will inevitably be weakened by the events in Ukraine:
“Moscow knew that the military intervention and subsequent conflict would weaken it. Russia tried to intimidate Kiev into a quick settlement to minimise the war but it failed due to Kiev’s resistance and most importantly Western assistance. Even if Russia wins the war in Ukraine it has expended a substantial amount of blood and treasure in securing Donbas and Crimea and will be less powerful as a result. This will produce a new reality in the southern Caucasus that whoever reacts most effectively to will gain out of. But care needs to be taken in relation to dealing with post-war Russia. I believe that the government of Azerbaijan possesses much superior statesmanship, based on the background of its leadership, and the events of the last few years, than Armenia.”
Ulviyya Shahin
