In a notable forecast, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council of Foreign Relations under the President of Russia, has raised concerns over the potential breakdown of ties between Armenia and Russia.
Speaking exclusively to Ednews, Bezpalko commented on the forthcoming visit of Nikola Pashinyan, the Armenian Prime Minister, to Moscow, stating, "Relations between Armenia and Russia will begin to deteriorate very badly."
Bezpalko emphasized the ceremonial nature of Pashinyan's visit, portraying it as a gesture of respect towards Russia's leadership under President Putin, who has resumed office for another term, overseeing the largest state in Eurasia for the next six years.
While acknowledging Armenia's membership in the Russian Defense Integration Union, including agreements such as the Collective Security Treaty and the Tashkent Pact, Bezpalko expressed skepticism regarding Armenia's stance towards Russia. Despite Pashinyan's vocal assertions, Bezpalko warned that Armenia's effective assistance ultimately hinges on Russia, its exclusive partner capable of stabilizing the entire South Caucasus region.
Touching upon Armenia's aspirations for European integration, Bezpalko suggested that while the EU may extend a visa-free regime to Armenian citizens, full membership remains unlikely. Economic reliance on Russia may persist, but politically, Armenia's military cooperation with European countries could strain its relations with Russia.
Bezpalko dismissed the likelihood of significant military assistance from France, although he conceded the possibility of equipment transfers through loans. He warned that such moves could exacerbate tensions between Armenia and Russia, potentially leading to destabilization in the South Caucasus and bolstering the roles of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Paradoxically, he suggested, this could also foster closer ties between Azerbaijan and Russia.
As tensions simmer between Armenia and Russia, Bezpalko's insights underscore the complex geopolitical landscape of the region and the delicate balance of power at play.
