Bulgaria, Latvia, Poland, and Ukraine projected to experience largest declines in workforce

Society 14:33 15.07.2019

According to Emerging-Europe.com the populations of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration, leading to significant impacts on growth, living standards, and fiscal sustainability.

“From one view point, this changing profile is, literally, living proof of the region’s recent economic progress. It is to be celebrated,” said International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Managing Director Tao Zhang at a conference, Demographics, Jobs and Growth: Navigating the Future in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, organised by the IMF and the Croatian National Bank (CNB) in Dubrovnik.

“Over the past three decades, living standards in the region have risen rapidly. GDP per capita has more than doubled, and per capita incomes now approach those of Western Europe in some of the countries. Longevity has also risen, with life expectancy increasing from 67 to almost 74 years since 1995,” he added.

According to the latest report published by the IMF, Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe, the labour force in CESEE countries is projected to shrink over the next three decades, while ageing populations will increase demands on health care and pension resources.

Bulgaria, Latvia, Poland, and Ukraine are projected to experience the worst labour force declines, more than 30 per cent, by 2050. But even in some of the better cases, such as Slovakia or Serbia, the labour force could decline by 20 per cent by 2050. And emigration has exacerbated the problem of contracting labour supply and has accelerated ageing.

“Shrinking labour supply and lower productivity of older workers, together with greater pressure on public finances, could cost countries about 1 per cent of GDP per year,” explained Mr Zhang. “This will also slow income convergence. In the absence of demographic pressures, per capita GDP in the region could have reached 74 per cent of Western European levels in 2050, up from 52 per cent in 2020. With the demographic headwinds, CESEE’s per capita GDP is projected to reach only 60 per cent of Western European levels in the same time frame.”

Inward migration policies have been used in some cases to address seasonal labour shortages. For example, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia have recently simplified procedures for short-term foreign workers from selected non-EU countries, especially Ukraine. Other countries, like Poland, have also adopted measures to promote return migration, including programmes to maintain ties and facilitate communication of job opportunities with diaspora abroad.

“Other ways to increase the size of the workforce could include encouraging more women and older workers into work. Policymakers could also consider raising the retirement age and ensure pensions are compatible with work. Nevertheless, for older workers to remain in the labour force, health outcomes would need to improve,” Mr Zhang underlined.

But across CESEE countries, the potential gains from the policies vary. Potential gains from different reforms will depend on the labour force structure, current retirement age, and participation rates. For example, Slovenia and Lithuania, which already have high female labour force participation rates, would benefit the most from increasing the retirement age, whereas Bosnia and Herzegovina and Moldova could significantly boost labour supply by increasing female labour force participation. By contrast, Belarus would benefit significantly from increasing the participation of older workers, even without changing the retirement age.

Read more:

Azerbaijan takes measures to turn Khankandi into safe city - VİDEO

News line

Crocus City Hall terrorists took drugs before attack - law enforcement agencies
Crocus City Hall terrorists took drugs before attack - law enforcement agencies
18:33 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan, UN Development Program mull future co-op
18:00 28.03.2024
An Independent Trade Union Established within International Eurasia Press Fund - First in NGO sector - PHOTOS
17:39 28.03.2024
Italian PM condemns Macron for idea of sending troops to Ukraine
Italian PM condemns Macron for idea of sending troops to Ukraine
17:23 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan lends clarity to color requirement for taxis
17:02 28.03.2024
Isaac Herzog: Israel has no greater friend than US, and US has no greater friend than Israel
Isaac Herzog: Israel has no greater friend than US, and US has no greater friend than Israel
16:45 28.03.2024
Nigerian army eliminates over 200 militants in 2 weeks
16:30 28.03.2024
Armored Vehicle Coalition for Ukraine launched in Poland
Armored Vehicle Coalition for Ukraine launched in Poland
16:15 28.03.2024
Russia strengthens transport security measures after terror attack at Crocus City Hall
Russia strengthens transport security measures after terror attack at Crocus City Hall
15:55 28.03.2024
Türkiye plays an important role between Russia and Ukraine - says political scientist Ismail Cingoz
15:45 28.03.2024
2 schoolchildren detained in France on suspicion of sending bomb threats
15:35 28.03.2024
Ski resort in Georgia hit by avalanche
Ski resort in Georgia hit by avalanche
15:26 28.03.2024
Another protest against French colonialism held in New Caledonia, Azerbaijani flag raised
Another protest against French colonialism held in New Caledonia, Azerbaijani flag raised
15:15 28.03.2024
Media: US did not transfer all information about terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall to Russia
15:00 28.03.2024
Movement ‘Together’ calls on Armenia’s parliamentary forces to express vote of no confidence in Pashinyan
14:41 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan to participate in international trade fair in Istanbul
Azerbaijan to participate in international trade fair in Istanbul
14:32 28.03.2024
Le Pen accuses French government of fraud
14:22 28.03.2024
Armenian Government Grapples with Internal Division on Village Return Issue - Ishkhan Verdiyan talks on Ednews
14:12 28.03.2024
Ammunition found along route of Crocus City Hall terrorists
Ammunition found along route of Crocus City Hall terrorists
13:41 28.03.2024
Expert Ilyas Huseynov Predicts Peaceful Return of these territories to Azerbaijan
13:20 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 29
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 29
12:55 28.03.2024
Russian MFA concerned about upcoming Armenia-US-EU meeting
12:23 28.03.2024
Secret Points of Pashinyan's Meeting with French Representative: Is Peace Agreement Signing Imminent?
12:00 28.03.2024
Armenia announces recruitment of border guards to work at Zvartnots
Armenia announces recruitment of border guards to work at Zvartnots
11:47 28.03.2024
The US-Armenia-EU Joint Conference is a part of the pressure plan on Azerbaijan - MP Konul Nurullayeva
11:30 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan’s central bank reduces discount rate
Azerbaijan’s central bank reduces discount rate
11:23 28.03.2024
CSTO chief: ‘Yerevan doesn’t participate in our work, but there are no statements about suspension’
11:13 28.03.2024
Ammunition found in Khankandi
Ammunition found in Khankandi
11:00 28.03.2024
Russia had been aware of preparation for terrorist attack at Crocus - says intelligience chief
10:46 28.03.2024
Scholtz reveals date of his last telephone conversation with Putin
Scholtz reveals date of his last telephone conversation with Putin
10:33 28.03.2024
Head of the SSS: France is inciting Armenia to a new war
10:21 28.03.2024
Are we in the brink of World War III? - Pundit talks on Ednews
10:10 28.03.2024
Azerbaijan's National Security: Reflecting on 105 Years of Defending Sovereignty
09:55 28.03.2024
Hikmat Hajiyev: Rasmussen fell in forgetfulness to attach payment to his report
09:35 28.03.2024
Hand grenades found in Kalbajar
09:25 28.03.2024
Titanic 'door' prop that kept Rose alive sells for $718,750
Titanic 'door' prop that kept Rose alive sells for $718,750
08:50 28.03.2024
Twitch's biggest streamer diagnosed with cancer diagnosis at 32
23:55 27.03.2024
Azerbaijan's former Minister of National Security passes away
22:41 27.03.2024
Russia has no unfriendly states, only unfriendly elites — Putin
22:25 27.03.2024
Erdogan vows to make efforts for implementation of UN resolution regarding Gaza
Erdogan vows to make efforts for implementation of UN resolution regarding Gaza
21:44 27.03.2024
Hamısı