Bulgaria, Latvia, Poland, and Ukraine projected to experience largest declines in workforce

Society 14:33 15.07.2019

According to Emerging-Europe.com the populations of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration, leading to significant impacts on growth, living standards, and fiscal sustainability.

“From one view point, this changing profile is, literally, living proof of the region’s recent economic progress. It is to be celebrated,” said International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Managing Director Tao Zhang at a conference, Demographics, Jobs and Growth: Navigating the Future in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, organised by the IMF and the Croatian National Bank (CNB) in Dubrovnik.

“Over the past three decades, living standards in the region have risen rapidly. GDP per capita has more than doubled, and per capita incomes now approach those of Western Europe in some of the countries. Longevity has also risen, with life expectancy increasing from 67 to almost 74 years since 1995,” he added.

According to the latest report published by the IMF, Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe, the labour force in CESEE countries is projected to shrink over the next three decades, while ageing populations will increase demands on health care and pension resources.

Bulgaria, Latvia, Poland, and Ukraine are projected to experience the worst labour force declines, more than 30 per cent, by 2050. But even in some of the better cases, such as Slovakia or Serbia, the labour force could decline by 20 per cent by 2050. And emigration has exacerbated the problem of contracting labour supply and has accelerated ageing.

“Shrinking labour supply and lower productivity of older workers, together with greater pressure on public finances, could cost countries about 1 per cent of GDP per year,” explained Mr Zhang. “This will also slow income convergence. In the absence of demographic pressures, per capita GDP in the region could have reached 74 per cent of Western European levels in 2050, up from 52 per cent in 2020. With the demographic headwinds, CESEE’s per capita GDP is projected to reach only 60 per cent of Western European levels in the same time frame.”

Inward migration policies have been used in some cases to address seasonal labour shortages. For example, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia have recently simplified procedures for short-term foreign workers from selected non-EU countries, especially Ukraine. Other countries, like Poland, have also adopted measures to promote return migration, including programmes to maintain ties and facilitate communication of job opportunities with diaspora abroad.

“Other ways to increase the size of the workforce could include encouraging more women and older workers into work. Policymakers could also consider raising the retirement age and ensure pensions are compatible with work. Nevertheless, for older workers to remain in the labour force, health outcomes would need to improve,” Mr Zhang underlined.

But across CESEE countries, the potential gains from the policies vary. Potential gains from different reforms will depend on the labour force structure, current retirement age, and participation rates. For example, Slovenia and Lithuania, which already have high female labour force participation rates, would benefit the most from increasing the retirement age, whereas Bosnia and Herzegovina and Moldova could significantly boost labour supply by increasing female labour force participation. By contrast, Belarus would benefit significantly from increasing the participation of older workers, even without changing the retirement age.

Read more:

Azerbaijan Defense Minister informs NATO chief on situation in Azerbaijan-Armenia conditional border -VIDEO

News line

Putin to visit China after inauguration
Putin to visit China after inauguration
15:15 19.03.2024
NATO Secretary General: Baku, Yerevan can reach lasting peace
NATO Secretary General: Baku, Yerevan can reach lasting peace
15:00 19.03.2024
German envoy congratulates people of Azerbaijan on Novruz holiday
German envoy congratulates people of Azerbaijan on Novruz holiday
14:45 19.03.2024
Hikmat Hajiyev: Baku attaches great importance to developing Azerbaijan-China relations
Hikmat Hajiyev: Baku attaches great importance to developing Azerbaijan-China relations
14:30 19.03.2024
Tourist flow to Azerbaijan soars by almost 50%
Tourist flow to Azerbaijan soars by almost 50%
14:15 19.03.2024
Manager of German club achieves another milestone
13:55 19.03.2024
Turkish intelligence neutralizes one of PKK leaders
Turkish intelligence neutralizes one of PKK leaders
13:45 19.03.2024
Moldova’s Foreign Ministry to expel Russian Embassy employee
Moldova’s Foreign Ministry to expel Russian Embassy employee
13:30 19.03.2024
Azerbaijan weather forecast for March 20
13:13 19.03.2024
Israel, Hamas ready to compromise at Doha talks
13:05 19.03.2024
More than dozen workers trapped in one of Russia's largest gold mines
More than dozen workers trapped in one of Russia's largest gold mines
12:49 19.03.2024
Armenia may face a war if refuses to discuss border issues - Pashinyan
12:22 19.03.2024
North Korea holds firing drill using super-large multiple rocket launchers
North Korea holds firing drill using super-large multiple rocket launchers
11:55 19.03.2024
Fenerbahçe to discuss withdrawing from 'Super Lig'
11:32 19.03.2024
Azerbaijani police found numerous weapons and ammunition in Khankandi
11:08 19.03.2024
US Maritime Administration issues new advisory amid rising maritime threats in Middle East
10:55 19.03.2024
EU looks forward to cooperation with Azerbaijan for successful COP29
10:38 19.03.2024
EU to impose tariffs on Russian grain
10:11 19.03.2024
Embassy of Azerbaijan in France appeals to Azerbaijanis
10:00 19.03.2024
Azerbaijani oil price exceeds $88
Azerbaijani oil price exceeds $88
09:48 19.03.2024
Mehriban Aliyeva makes post on Last Tuesday before Novruz Holiday
09:35 19.03.2024
Pashinyan: Delimitation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan entered practical stage
09:00 19.03.2024
Pakistan restricts foreign travels of ministers, government officials
Pakistan restricts foreign travels of ministers, government officials
20:39 18.03.2024
EU to boost military support fund for Ukraine by EUR 5 bln — Hungarian foreign minister
20:00 18.03.2024
Industrial zones to be created in Azerbaijan’s Zangilan, Jabrayil, and Gubadli
19:16 18.03.2024
Reuters: Only an oil slump can stop Russia
19:00 18.03.2024
Top Hamas operative killed in hospital raid, IDF says
Top Hamas operative killed in hospital raid, IDF says
18:33 18.03.2024
President Ilham Aliyev congratulates people of Azerbaijan on occasion of Novruz holiday - UPDATED
18:00 18.03.2024
Jens Stoltenberg: We fully support Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity
Jens Stoltenberg: We fully support Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity
17:47 18.03.2024
2 dead, 6 injured in Türkiye factory explosion
2 dead, 6 injured in Türkiye factory explosion
17:28 18.03.2024
Armenia’s anti-Russian policy reaches new level
17:11 18.03.2024
"The Middle Corridor plays a key role for Green Energy" - Expert Ali Pasha
16:45 18.03.2024
Central square of Khankandi named “Victory Square”
16:22 18.03.2024
President: We demonstrated tremendous heroism during the II Karabakh War and the anti-terror operation
16:16 18.03.2024
Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Muhammad Yunus visited IEPF - PHOTOS - VIDEO
16:00 18.03.2024
Historic opportunity emerged to advance the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace agenda - FM Bayramov
15:21 18.03.2024
Bayramov and Stoltenberg discuss normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia
15:03 18.03.2024
Azerbaijan Defense Minister informs NATO chief on situation in Azerbaijan-Armenia conditional border -VIDEO
14:58 18.03.2024
Stoltenberg's visit to the Caucasus: "NATO is in panic" - OPİNİON
14:29 18.03.2024
Hikmat Hajiyev holds discussions for upcoming COP29 with Chinese Vice FM
Hikmat Hajiyev holds discussions for upcoming COP29 with Chinese Vice FM
14:00 18.03.2024
Hamısı