Eurasia Diary presents an article titled "Pak-China ties & emerging geopolitical & security scenarios" published in Pakistan Observer. 

Article was written by Mehmood Ul Hasan Khan, expert on geopolitical and regional studies. 

IRON brothers, Pakistan and China are closely observing the deployment of SU-400 by India along the Punjab sector of Pakistan.

According to latest information of Indian Defence Ministry (December 2021), the Indian Air Force (IAF) has deployed the first squadron of the S-400 air defence missile system in the Punjab sector. It would also be deployed in depth areas to tackle the threat from China.

It shows its madness of arms race adhering to the principles of offensive realism, aspiring to accumulate maximum power and establish its hegemony in the region.

Policymakers, strategists and military brasses of Islamabad and Beijing are coordinating to chalk out comprehensive response and prepare a Counter Offensive Strategy (COS) against this deployment of SU-400.

Because of its effectiveness and modern technologies, the S-400 air defense system has now emerged as an eye-grabbing technology, compelling several states to acquire it.

Developed by the Almaz Central Design Bureau of Russia, the S-400 is a mobile air defense system that serves to engage intruding aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

It has surfaced as an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) asset designed to protect military, political, and economic assets from aerial attacks. Moreover, the S-400 supports an upgraded radar system and a software update that enables it to fire new types of missiles.

The S-400 is equipped with four different types of missiles: short-range 9M96E (40km), medium-range 9M96E2 (120km), long-range 48N6 (250km), and the very long-range 40N6E (400km).

In this connection, India already has its own indigenous two-tiered ballistic missile defense (BMD) system, which is already operational.

The BMD system encompasses the Prithvi Air Defense (PAD) and Advanced Air Defense (AAD) systems for high-altitude interception and low-altitude interception, respectively.

The outermost layer of the Indian multilayered shield will constitute India’s indigenous AAD and PAD, with the new S-400 air defense systems comprising the second layer.

However, Pakistan missile technologies and resultant various advanced nuclear arsenals can easily match Indian missile and anti-missile capabilities but deployment of SU-400 has become punching box.

In the near past, Pakistan Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed announced at a public event in Rawalpindi that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) would perform a fly-over using 25 “JS-10” jet fighters newly purchased from China for the Republic Day parade on March 23.

These jets, he added, would counter the 36 Dassault Rafale jet fighters India was receiving from France.

It has now reconfirmed even by Turkish TV channel TRT. The J-10 known as “Firebird” and “Vigorous Dragon” by the West is a single-engine tactical fighter built by the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation in Sichuan province.

Developed in the 1980s and 90s. There has not been official confirmation (nor denial) from China or Pakistan of the buy since Ahmed’s statement, which has been primarily reported in regional press but it seems that expected visit of Imran Khan to Beijing in the month of February will be very important in this regard.

In this context, Pakistan, a longtime ally of China’s, first expressed interest in the J-10 back in 2006, but chose instead to co-manufacture with China a light fighter called the JF-17 Thunder, the latest Block III model of which introduces significant beyond-visual-range (BVR) warfare capability.

However, Islamabad repeatedly explored buying the higher-performing J-10s as well, and has gained familiarity with the type in visits and joint exercises involving People’s Liberation Army Air Force J-10s.

It has an extensive number of variants, including the basic J-10A and a twin-seater training version J-10S. In the early 2010s, an upgraded J-10B was introduced, and in 2018 all the previous versions were discontinued in favor of the J-10C.

The jet features a diverter-less supersonic inlet (DSI) and Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar.

According to reliable diplomatic and military sources Beijing would allow Pakistan access to hypersonic weapons to counter the S-400.

Hypersonic weapons, which fly at over five times the speed of sound, are difficult for most radars to track and existing surface-to-air missiles to engage. A hypersonic glide vehicle is a type of hypersonic weapon that is mounted on a ballistic missile and released in the upper atmosphere, after which it glides to its target.

According to US intelligence estimates, the Chinese DF-17 has a range of around 2,500km and moves at between five and 10 times the speed of sound. The Chinese military is believed to have inducted the DF-17 into service.

In addition to this many local military experts have previously argued in favour of developing hypersonic weapons to counter the deployment of the S-400.

China may also assist Pakistan by providing its upgraded surface-to-air missiles, which could deter the Indian Air Force from carrying out offensive operations.

China has developed indigenous versions of the S-300 called the HQ-9 family of surface-to-air missiles, which have already been sold to Pakistan. The induction of the HQ-9 in Pakistan defence system has further strengthened its capabilities.

It is featured a hard-to-jam phased array guidance and tracking radar, and its missile uses an active radar for terminal guidance. Even help from Turkey having S-400 may also be sought but it has remote chances.

China allowing Pakistan access to its S-400 systems would allow Islamabad to develop electronic countermeasures to jam radars or craft specific flight plans for its fighter jets that reduce possibility of detection.

On the other hand, most recently, Pakistan navy has inducted Tughril into the PN fleet along with Sea-King helicopters gifted by the state of Qatar.

It has further enhanced PN combat capabilities in safeguarding the territorial integrity and maritime interests of Pakistan.

The naval chief expressed confidence that the highly capable Pakistan Navy Fleet and its air arm will continue promoting peace and stability in line with Government’s policy while devotedly guarding our maritime frontiers.

In the near past, Pakistan’s Navy has also successfully carried out test firing of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) at Karachi, demonstrating the country’s naval combat readiness.

It showcased its war preparedness through Ground-Based Air Defence (GBAD) live firing of these missiles.

Moreover, construction of the eight submarines has been divided between Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation. Out of the eight submarines, four will be built at Karachi shipyard.

To conclude, Pakistan has now successfully test fired various versions of its indigenously developed anti-ballistic missile (ABM) with enhanced range.

It seems that region is inching towards escalations because of Indian constant war threats and posturing.

However, the versatility of the S-400 has meant that Pakistan has considered its acquisition by India as a threat, as the system can shoot down aircraft even in Pakistani airspace which needs closed military cooperation with China.

—The writer is Director: Geopolitics/Economics, Regional Expert: China, CPEC & BRI, Member Board of Expert: Center for South Asia & International Studies (CSAIS), Islamabad