"Both Lukashenko and Putin's threats are no more than desperate attempts of bluffing" - Ukrainian expert - ednews.net

5 July, Tuesday

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"Both Lukashenko and Putin's threats are no more than desperate attempts of bluffing" - Ukrainian expert

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On May 20, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko met with Governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region of the Russian Federation Gleb Nikitin. During the discussion, Lukashenko noted that sufficient number of "Alexander" and "S-400" missiles were purchased from Russia. The President of Belarus stressed that these weapons can cause great damage. 
 
What are interests of Belarus's purchase of these missiles? What is the purpose of Lukashenko's statement? World public want to get answers to these questions.
 
Speaking to Ednews, Mykola Zamikula, a Ukrainian political expert and senior research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, said that It’s impossible to consider Lukashenko as an independent politician.
 
“The self-proclaimed “president” of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko made a lot of controversial statements, which sounds quite hawkish. But it is impossible to consider his actions or talks seriously. Belarus is de facto controlled by Russia. Lukashenko is not happy with this – as it limits his powers to minimum. But after the presidential elections and mass protests of 2020 it was clear, that his regime was rescued only by the Russian support. And now Lukashenko is forced to satisfy Kremlin’s wishes. His strong anti-western rhetoric and approval of the use of Belarus’s territory as a base for Russian aggression against Ukraine are good illustrations of such state of affairs”.
 
Ukranian expert noted that, Lukashenko understands that the Russian invasion is not going well. 
 
“Belarus president tries his best not to participate in it directly – because putting their troops against Ukraine would lead to disaster for his regime. Small army of Belarus, which has no combat experience, will not achieve any results on the frontline. Especially when we are talking about attack against other state, a respected and peaceful neighbour – not about defence of the Motherland. Russian war against Ukraine does not have support from the Belarusian people, who may initiate another wave of protests if Lukashenko will agree to take part in the invasion directly. And in this case even Russians couldn’t save him”. 
According to Mykola Zamikula’s comment Lukashenko is not ready to satisfy Russian demands on this matter. 
 
“Belarus government tries to hide this “insubordination” with the Russian “patron” by demonstrating loyalty in other issues. His aggressive militaristic rhetoric against the West, as well as support of Russian propaganda (for exmple, all these lies about “potential Ukrainian attack” against Belarus or “Poland’s plans to annex part of Ukrainian territory”) should be considered in this context. He tries to demonstrate loyalty for Russia and to be useful at least in some issues in order to stay as at least nominal leader of Belarus. Because Russians could replace him easily with another candidate – if they will think that he is becoming useless for them”. 
 
Political expert said that there is no any threat for Belarus and Russia from NATO.
 
“New weapons on Belarusian territory are another step in the confrontation with the West, which is staged by Russia. Lukashenko’s speech supports Russian propaganda, which threatens Poland and Baltic States because of their support for Ukraine. Russian leaders play a dangerous game, and Lukashenko is forced to support them in this matter. Also, I have doubts that he even controls this modern rockets and anti-aircraft systems, on which he is talking about. They could be “Belarusian” only by name – but in reality remain under the full control of the Kremlin”.
 
Mykola Zamikula also talk about military aspect of the placement of Russian weapons in Belarus.
 
“It should be noted that its power is exaggerate by Moscow’s propaganda, which likes to talk about new “super weapon”. But as we can see from the events of the last years, neither weapon can replace the professionalism nor it will be able to fight. It was seen during the 44-days war – and situation repeats now in Ukraine. After all, Armenia had “Iskander” missiles, and even used them in 2020. But it doesn’t change the situation on the frontline. So, Putin and Lukashenko are trying to scare the West with loud talks. But in reality their threats are no more than desperate attempts of bluffing”.
 
By Khanlar Alibek

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