This could be the end of the world economy - Predictions from English politologue

World 19:25 25.04.2024

In a thought-provoking statement to Ednews, esteemed English economist and political scientist, Robert Thomas, expressed concerns over the potential ramifications of Russia's prolonged isolation and the looming threat of deglobalization.

Thomas cautioned that while Russia may appear isolated currently, the true blow to globalization could occur if trade between advanced economies and China also diminishes—a scenario he, unfortunately, deemed possible. He underscored the potential for a fundamental restructuring of the global economy, which could have adverse effects on geopolitical stability.

Highlighting the significance of interconnectedness in global trade, Thomas emphasized the historical argument that countries engaging in trade are less likely to resort to conflict. He noted the contemporary nuance that indirect trade through shared partners and networks also fosters peace. However, he warned that deglobalization could pose a substantial negative shock to the world economy, leading to higher prices from local monopolies and reduced "creative destruction," thus potentially exacerbating economic costs.

Furthermore, Thomas stressed the dynamic effects of globalization, including its positive impact on institutional development. He cautioned that while globalization has its winners and losers, deglobalization could disproportionately affect certain sectors, amplifying overall economic effects.

Turning to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, Thomas lamented that Russia's aggression poses a grave threat to global peace, particularly in Europe. He warned that the conflict exacerbates existing negative economic trends, such as inflation, poverty, food insecurity, and environmental degradation. Additionally, he noted the challenge of rebalancing fiscal priorities, especially with the apparent end of the peace dividend that once facilitated higher social spending in advanced economies.

As the world navigates these complex geopolitical and economic challenges, Thomas's insights serve as a sobering reminder of the interconnectedness of global affairs and the imperative for concerted international efforts to safeguard peace and prosperity.

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