Russian Economy Ministry expects inflation to reach 13.4% in 2022, GDP to drop to 4.2%

Economy 11:40 17.08.2022

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has revised its forecast for inflation from 17.6% to 13.4% as of the end of 2022, according to key parameters in the 2025 draft socioeconomic development outlook available with TASS.

According to the document, inflation will gear down to 5.5% in 2023. The consumer price index is expected to gain 4.2% in 2024 and 4% in 2025.

The ministry expects the national gross domestic product (GDP) to decline by 4.2% as of the end of 2022. As indicated in the draft outlook, the national GDP will stand at 144.9 trillion rubles ($2.37 trillion) in 2022. GDP is expected to contract by 2.7% in 2023. The recovery is anticipated to start in 2024 (+3.7% and continue in 2025 (+2.6%), according to the document.

The ministry also expects Russia’s trade balance to be $299.6 bln as of the end of 2022 and its further decline. The document forecasts that exports will grow to $585.3 bln in 2022 and imports will decline to $285.7 bln. The surplus of $190.8 bln is expected in 2023 on account of lower exports and higher imports ($505.4 bln and $314.5 bln accordingly). The macroeconomic outlook anticipates a smaller decrease in exports against more active import recovery in the next two years. According to estimates in the draft document, the trade balance surplus will stand at $169.2 bln in 2024 and $153.6 bln in 2025.

"We had an extremely high trade balance in the first six months of the year. The trade balance is expected to contract gradually on account of recovering imports and certain drop in exports by virtue of the need to redirect export flows to new destinations and certain losses related to such refocusing," a federal government official familiar with the macroeconomic forecast discussions told reporters.

The Ministry of Economic Development expects Russia’s retail trade turnover to decline by 6.6% as of the end of 2022. The ministry expects the retail trade turnover to gain 2% in 2023, 5.6% in 2024, and 2.4% in 2025.

The draft paper also anticipates that paid services to the population will tumble 1.5% as of the end of this year but will rise by 1.3-2.8% in 2023-2025.

The ministry revised its forecast for the country’s unemployment rate from 6.7% in the May outlook to 4.8% as of the end of 2022. The average annual unemployment rate is expected to be 5.2% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024, while the forecast for 2025 provides for 4.5%. The unemployment rate is expected to be the highest in late 2022 - early 2023, the government official noted.

"Some industries and regions are expected to face workforce shortages, while others will have to deal with unemployment at some point. This is related exactly to the structural transformation of the economy," the official said.

IEPF issued a statement regarding Azerbaijani children at the UN Human Rights Council

News line

Spain voices concern over Iran's suspension of cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog
23:35 03.07.2025
Pope Leo can play important role in improving US-North Korea ties, says Cardinal Lazzaro You
23:00 03.07.2025
UN rapporteur on occupied Palestinian territory says accountability needed over killings of aid-seekers in Gaza
22:35 03.07.2025
Gaza ceasefire proposal calls for release of 10 Israeli hostages, includes US assurances to end war Report
22:00 03.07.2025
Australian man dies from 'extremely rare' bat bite virus
21:30 03.07.2025
Armenia restarts constitutional reform talks
21:15 03.07.2025
Azerbaijani wrestler crowned European champion
21:00 03.07.2025
Azerbaijani boxer qualifies for World Cup semifinals
20:30 03.07.2025
Liverpool rejects Bayern Munich's approach for Diaz
20:00 03.07.2025
President Ilham Aliyev inspected site designated for Khankandi-Shusha cable car construction
19:35 03.07.2025
Presidents of Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan review operations of Businesstex JV sewing factory in Khankandi
19:20 03.07.2025
Deputy Prime Minister of Afghanistan to attend 17th ECO Summit in Khankendi
19:15 03.07.2025
Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif begins visit to Azerbaijan
19:00 03.07.2025
Cyberattacks on Azerbaijani state bodies slightly rising
18:45 03.07.2025
Height of the Victory Arch in Khankandi to be 44 meters
18:15 03.07.2025
Nigerian minister to attend 17th ECO Summit in Khankandi
18:00 03.07.2025
President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev arrives in Fuzuli district
17:45 03.07.2025
Opening ceremony of Khankandi Congress Center held
17:30 03.07.2025
China ready to sign nuclear-weapon-free zone treaty
17:15 03.07.2025
President of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus arrives in Fuzuli district
17:00 03.07.2025
President Ilham Aliyev attends opening of Khankandi Business Center
16:45 03.07.2025
Turkish president to visit Khankandi on July 4
16:30 03.07.2025
Iran calls negotiations with European countries 'meaningless'
16:15 03.07.2025
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev receives Deputy Chairman of Turkmenistan’s Cabinet of Ministers in Khankandi
16:00 03.07.2025
Scorching European heatwave turns deadly in Spain, Italy and France
15:45 03.07.2025
National Defense University hosts training as part of NATO programme
15:30 03.07.2025
3 killed, 16 injured in mass shooting at Chicago nightclub
15:20 03.07.2025
China is not US, and challenges to Europe won’t come from Beijing: Top diplomat
15:15 03.07.2025
Russia restricts access to Azerbaijani news websites
15:00 03.07.2025
2 killed, 11 injured in Russian strikes in Ukraine's Poltava
14:45 03.07.2025
Trump may arm Israel with US B-2s, bunker busters
14:30 03.07.2025
Foundation stone laid for Khankandi Railway and Bus Terminal Complex
14:20 03.07.2025
Baku, Kabul mull development of Lapis Lazuli corridor
14:15 03.07.2025
Azerbaijani deputy FM mulls areas of cooperation with Afghan counterpart
14:00 03.07.2025
Israeli president receives new ambassador to Azerbaijan
13:50 03.07.2025
5US lifts chip software curbs on China amid trade truce
13:45 03.07.2025
Tajikistan and Saudi Fund for Development set to expand project financing
13:30 03.07.2025
S. Korean President vows to improve relations with N. Korea based on cooperation with US
13:10 03.07.2025
Politico: Ukraine expects Europe to buy weapons for it from US
13:00 03.07.2025
State Department: Bringing Russia-Ukraine war to end remains Trump's priority
12:45 03.07.2025
Hamısı