Eurasia Diary conducted an interview with Paul Goble, American analyst with expertise on the Soviet Union and Russia regarding the current Karabakh war between Armenian and Azerbaijani Armed Forces. 

Goble served as special adviser on Soviet nationality issues and Baltic affairs to Secretary of State of the United States.

- Since September 27, the military clashes have been intensified between Armenian and Azerbaijan Armed Forces along the entire line of front around Karabakh. As a result of serious battles and strong mutual attacks, the military personnel and civilians at both sides have suffered huge losses and damages. Please tell us, what are the main reasons led up to the flare-up of military clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh?

- Both Baku and Yerevan have been living on borrowed time with each side testing the other on a regular basis. It was inevitable that at some point one side or the other would do something to prompt the other to respond. My sense is that neither can be held uniquely responsible but rather this latest upsurge grew out of that pattern. 

- Do you think that Russia has left Armenia alone in war with Armenia? 

- Russia doesn’t want either side to win. I am sure that it has provided the weaker party, Armenia, with some assistance, but far less than Yerevan counted on. Moscow would have to send far more weapons or intervene directly to make a difference, and with each passing day, that becomes more difficult.

- In August, Azerbaijan and Turkish military units, including air and ground forces, conducted the joint largest-scale drills in Azerbaijan. Do you think that Turkish military strategy Azerbaijan has mastered plays a significant role in its counter-offensive operations in Nagorno-Karabakh?