With the liberation of the Lachin region on 1 December, Azerbaijan returned its territories. As Ilham Aliyev, head of state said, the military phase of the conflict is over.
In order to understand further developments, Eurasia Diary has talked with political analyst Rovshan Ibrahimov, Professor on Regional Studies at Hanguk University in South Korea.
With the end of the war, a new phase will begin, and a political analyst has looked through possible developments that may take place in this phase.
"President of the Azerbaijan Republic has stated that the military phase of the conflict is over. He has noted that the political phase will begin. Negotiations may or may not take place here. However, it is expected that some additional provisions may be required. In particular, first of all, the return of refugees to their homes and the areas where the peacekeeping forces are deployed are planned.
The political analyst also clarified the discussions on the future of Nagorno-Karabakh by expressing his opinion.
"We can say that now Azerbaijan has changed the situation in its favor through military means in excess of the minimum expectations, therefore there is no Nagorno-Karabakh element today. As for its status and future, it is clear that there is no status and there is no discussion about it.
If such an issue arises in bilateral talks or with the participation of any mediator, if there is a desire of status, then it can be considered in the framework of conditions proposed by Armenia. If the status is sought for Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, then we put our conditions that Armenia must also adequately and symmetrically guarantee the return of Azerbaijani refugees and give Zangazur region consisting of Azerbaijani population any possible status similar to Karabakh. Otherwise, no development or negotiations in this direction are possible. Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh will be Azerbaijani citizens, use Azerbaijani passports, and follow the rules. They will also be ensured with the rights granted other minorities
In his address to the nation, Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan touched upon the prospects for broad multilateral cooperation in the region and proposed same thing to Armenia. Rovshan Ibrahimov spoke about the importance of this proposal.
"Regional cooperation is a very constructive proposal. However, it depends on who is in the political leadership of Armenia. Because there is a crisis in Armenia now, it is not clear what process will happen at the next stage. Besides, there is currently no political party in Armenia that can think constructively and respond positively to this such proposal. Let us hope that Armenia will be able to take a more pragmatic and rational step on this issue. You know that pragmatism always based on the economic agenda. In addition, the Armenians are unable to fulfill their dream to expand their territories, because so far they have not been able to use those lands economically.
In this case, let's wait and see, how Armenia could be ready to accept this proposal lead to the building of the infrastructure, roads and creating opportunies for mutual travel. It can only bring positive results for the Armenian economy. But as I said, it depends on the political will of the Armenian side."
Many Armenians saidthat they have not surrendered and accepted the situation. Touching upon issue, political analyst clarified what options Armenians will face.
"It doesn't matter what is said on social media. Because the opinion of the masses does not mean the opinion of the people. As well as, you can deny social reality, but you have to reconcile with it when it turns into practice. If you do not reconcile, then you must act. However, the Armenian state and people do not have the power to react. During this time, we have witnessed that very few Armenians who actively participated in the social networks were ready to fight with Azerbaijan; Armenia always had a problem with reserves. Because many people did not want to wage war openly, they just fought on the Internet.
It is easy to understand the agony of the Armenians, their current shock and hate, and it would be surprising if there was a different reaction. They will accept the situation, and they have no other choice. In general, there is nothing we can do. Armenians currently have two options: either to accept the situation, to cooperate with Azerbaijan, or to leave Armenia and live in a better country, there is no third option. They will determine their future between these two options. They will live within these choices, even if they hate it."
