The US think tank Stratfor has recently shared a map on its official website about Turkey’s growing influence around the world. The map shows regions including Caucasus, Russia occupied Ukraine’s Crimea, Middle East and Asia, which are believed to be united under Turkey's control. 

Political expert Engin Ozer spoke to Eurasia Diary sharing his views on the map and Turkey’s political position.   

The US think tank Stratfor has shared an interesting analytical map of Turkey's growing influence in the North Caucasus, Asia and the Middle East by 2050. What would be your views about this?

As you know, majority of experts at US think tank Stratfor are retired officials, former CIA officers and generals and they focus on manipulating information rather than analysis. I think such American political think tanks try to draw Russia's attention to Turkey as well as irritating them against the country. 

Turkey, on the other hand, is trying to build better relations with all countries in the region. In Libya, for example, Turkey has reached a joint agreement with Russia. In fact, Armenia has also benefited greatly from Turkey's recent relations in the Caucasus. Turkey is currently working on Iraq, and the issue of Afghanistan was previously discussed in Moscow. Therefore, this step of the United States can be understood as simply showing Turkey as a hegemon in the region and inciting the surrounding countries to oppose it.

I would like to remind that Stratfor had published a similar analytical report on Georgia in 2020. According to the report, Turkey as though had a plan to expand its territory against Georgia by then, and from there would move towards Russian territories. 

The sole purpose of strengthening Turkey's relations with neighboring countries is to support the economic development of both Turkey and other countries. As for Stratfor, I consider such information only as a threat against Turkey.

This map was formed during Erdogan's tenure, and how realistic can it be if Erdogan leaves power?

In fact, preparing such a map is not difficult. As I mentioned earlier, the activities of the centres in America are to present Turkey as a threat to other countries. 

Of course, America's position does not pose a problem for Erdogan's government. This is just propaganda against Turkey's domestic and foreign affairs, and I do not believe that this map is included in Turkey's strategic plan.

If we take into account the map of Dagestan and the Crimean region of Ukraine, we can see that most of the territories are part of Russia, and in this case, what would be Russia’s reaction to this?

If that map is thought to be true, there must be a formula, such as the fact that the countries that are part of Russia must first declare their independence and then join Turkey in a referendum. However, such a formula does not exist, and these peoples do not have such requirements. In particular, as shown on the map, these areas include Russian-populated areas such as Krasnodar and Stavropol, and they have no such claim. 

Generally, the expression of the ‘Great Turan State’, which has been circulating in public lately, is also part of America's provocative plans. It is also a propaganda designed to create panic in Russia. Therefore, I think the spread of such statements is a step against Turkey.

Obviously, majority of Turkic-speaking people live in Asia.  Do you think the Turks will ever have a greater influence in Russia that owns the continent?

It may be possible the Turkic-speaking countries to unite in order to develop political and trade relations, as well as to ensure security. However, their combination and management from a single centre is a completely different matter. In fact, in my opinion, the unification of Turkic-speaking countries is a very good step. Of course, it is possible to unite with other Turkic-speaking countries, not by creating a conflict with Russia, but as Turkey's current joint relations with Azerbaijan, including Russia. 

In my opinion, thinking the other way around can seriously damage stability in the region. As a result, such ideas can turn countries into tools in American games. I believe that by 2050, not as a supporter of radical nationalist ideas, but as a progressive individual, Turkey will establish closer political and economic relations with the countries on the map.

By Elnur Enveroglu