Eurasia Diary presents an interview with Muhammed Asif Nur, Pakistani expert on Eurasian studies regarding the importance of Afghanistan in the foreign policy of China over Eurasia. 

Muhammad Asif Noor, Director of Centre for Central Asia and Eurasian Studies- Institute of Peace and Diplomatic Studies, Pakistan.

In his interview, Asif Noor has touched upon the main interests of China in Afghanistan, the current diplomatic relations between Beijing and Kabul, as well as the reaction of Pakistan to China's friendly relations with Taliban regime. 

According to him, China and Pakistan are main regional actors provinding the strong support for security and stability in Afghanistan. 

- Please tell us, what are the main interests of China in Afghanistan?  

China's interests in Afghanistan are multifaceted, driven by geographical proximity and a long-standing bilateral engagement. One of the main drivers of Chinese interest in Afghanistan is the desire to combat separatist, extremist, and terrorist threats within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO) broader agenda of promoting peace and security. This focus on anti-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan serves to protect China's western region of Xinjiang and mitigate the potential for cross-border interference.

In addition to security concerns, China has significant geo-strategic and geo-economic interests in Afghanistan. This includes creating a favorable environment for trade, supporting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and promoting connectivity between Central Asia and Pakistan's Gwadar port through Afghanistan. China is also interested in extracting rare earth minerals, oil, and other natural resources from Afghanistan.

China has taken a unique approach to engaging with the Taliban by signing agreements with the group to extract oil from the Amu River. However, this should not be interpreted as formal recognition of the Taliban regime in Kabul. Instead, it protects Chinese investment, diplomatic influence, and strategic presence in the region as China repositions itself in the face of increasing competition from the United States.

At the diplomatic level, China's approach to Afghanistan is one of continuous engagement while also working to find common ground on areas of disagreement. The Chinese and Afghan governments do not currently have significant differences, and China has maintained its embassy in Afghanistan even during the time the Taliban held power. China has also expressed a willingness to engage with the Taliban to promote stability, peace, and development.

- What is the importance of Afghanistan in the geostrategic position of China in Asia? 

The sudden withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan created a significant power vacuum that China saw as an opportunity to fill. Despite the ongoing security challenges and specific threats to Chinese nationals, China is motivated by business interests to engage with the Taliban. The Taliban government, due to its limited choices in foreign policy toward its neighbors, sees China as a trusted and dependable partner willing to invest, engage, and enhance bilateral cooperation.

In this context, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on the international community at the G20 meeting of Foreign Ministers to lift unilateral sanctions on Afghanistan. A stable Afghanistan aligns with China's Belt and Road Initiative, provides connectivity, offers access to various natural resources, and enhances China's outreach to Iran and Central Asia. 

With Pakistan to its southeast, Afghanistan presents significant opportunities for regional connectivity. Afghanistan acts as a land bridge between China and the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia. This allows China to expand its economic and political influence in these regions, as well as to access important energy and natural resource markets. Afghanistan also serves as a buffer zone between China and the Indian subcontinent, which is important for China's security and strategic interests.

- Do you think China is the main actor providing support for the solidity and durability of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan?       

No, China is not the primary actor supporting the durability of the Taliban but seeking peace and stability in Afghanistan through a strong government in Kabul representing the people of Afghanistan. Since the Taliban faces no significant resistance in Afghanistan, it is safe to assume that the Taliban are stable on their own in Afghanistan but needs support to combat terrorist organizations. 

China has called for a political solution to the conflict in Afghanistan and has been participating in peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. China has also provided humanitarian aid and development assistance to Afghanistan to support its stability and development.

Pakistan and Iran are other stakeholders who intend to enable peace and security across Afghanistan and to combat terrorism. Even international actors such as the United States engaged with Taliban representatives at Doha to discuss eliminating terrorist groups from Afghanistan. Multi-national organizations and international donors continued to engage with the Taliban on education, health, women empowerment, etc. 

Apart from China, Pakistan, and Iran, Central Asian republics are also interested to have peace, and stability in Afghanistan based on the facts of what has happened in the aftermath of the US withdrawal as several refugees from Afghanistan began to rush toward the Central Asian region. Apart from refugees, ther rise in threats of terrorism is another important factor that might led the CARs to influence and play a role related to Afghanistan.  

- What is the reaction of Islamabad to the friendly relations between Pekin(Beijing)  and the Taliban?  

Pakistan and China share a strategic partnership, as they both have common interests in Afghanistan. These interests include anti-terrorism efforts, connectivity with Central Asia, and the inclusion of Afghanistan into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistan supports China's friendly relations with the Taliban, as China possesses the diplomatic and financial capital to promote development in Afghanistan, which will lead to a more peaceful region. Pakistan also welcomes China's economic and infrastructure development projects in Afghanistan, as they believe it will help stabilize the region and promote economic growth. Additionally, Pakistan is a key participant in China's Belt and Road Initiative and views China's engagement in Afghanistan as a way further to strengthen its strategic and economic ties with China.

- Do you think China could play a significant role in the arrangement of relations between Islamabad and the Taliban regime?

China has the potential to play a significant role in facilitating relations between Islamabad and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. As a significant regional power with strong economic and political ties to Pakistan and Afghanistan, China can exert significant influence over the situation in Afghanistan.

Pakistan and the government in Kabul have ups and downs of relations owing to several factors especially the recent rise of terrorism in Pakistan as a result of the rise of TTP.  Still, there is little progress on the TTP bases in Afghanistan, where Afghan Taliban are reluctant to act. China shares its principled position with Pakistan that Afghan soil should not be used against its neighbors for terrorist activities. Since China is also a victim of extremism and terrorism, China is likely to side with Pakistan in convincing the Afghan Taliban to act on its commitments made in the Doha deal. China enjoys economic capital and is better positioned to influence Taliban attitudes towards terrorist organizations in Afghanistan. 

Earlier China has already been involved in peace talks between the former Afghan government and the Taliban and has been working to promote a political solution to the conflict. It has also been providing humanitarian aid and development assistance to Afghanistan in an effort to support stability and development in the region.  Additionally, China's economic and infrastructure development projects in Afghanistan could help to build trust and cooperation between the different parties and could help to create conditions for a more stable and peaceful Afghanistan.

However, it's worth noting that bringing peace to Afghanistan is a complex task and no single country can achieve this alone. It will require the cooperation of multiple regional and international actors, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, the United States, and others.

by Yunis Abdullayev