Democrats wonder and worry: Why isn’t Clinton far ahead of Trump?

World 10:27 10.09.2016

With Election Day less than two months away, Democrats are increasingly worried that Hillary Clinton has not built a formidable lead against Donald Trump despite his historic weaknesses as a national party candidate.

Even the Democratic nominee’s advisers acknowledge that she must make changes, and quickly. Clinton leads Trump by three percentage points, having fallen from her high of nine points in August, according to the latest RealClearPolitics average. That tightening has frustrated many Clinton allies and operatives, who are astonished that she isn’t running away with this race, given Trump’s deep unpopularity and his continuing stream of controversial comments.

“Generally, I’m concerned, frankly,” said former Democratic Senate leader Thomas A. Daschle (S.D.). “It still looks positive, and I think if you look at the swing states and where she is right now, she’s got a lead. But it’s certainly not in the bag. We have two months to go, and I think it’s going to be a competitive race all the way through. I would say she’s got at least a 60 percent chance of winning.”

At the same time, Daschle said, “all the things that Trump has done, the numbers should be far more explicitly in her favor, but they’re not.”

Among Democrats’ concerns is the fact that Clinton spent a great deal of time over the summer raising millions of dollars in private fundraisers while Trump was devoting much of his schedule to rallies, speeches and TV appearances — although many of those didn’t go as well as his campaign may have hoped.

Clinton has focused more heavily on fundraising than Democratic strategists had hoped would be necessary at this stage, partly to help Democrats running for Congress and state offices who would be useful to Clinton if she is president and partly to hold off further erosion in the polls.

One new goal for Clinton now, aides said, is to spend more time trying to connect directly with voters by sharing a more personal side of herself — and by telling them where she wants to take the country.

The campaign has long predicted a tightened race and has taken to using recent polls both to imbue supporters with a sense of urgency and to continue raising money.

“Trump’s pulled neck-and-neck in a few recent public polls” and is ahead in the battleground Ohio in one survey, campaign manager Robby Mook wrote to supporters. “His fundraising numbers are spiking — he and the Republicans raised $90 million in August (his best month yet). His ground game is growing,” Mook wrote.

“That means we can’t underestimate our opponent — because if we don’t see a serious uptick in our fundraising right now, Donald Trump’s presidency could be a real possibility.”

Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, battling historic unpopularity and a flood of public Republican defections, has been delighted and somewhat relieved to see the polls tighten. Aides attributed the change to Trump’s packed August schedule, including a visit to Mexico, as well as increased discipline — at least by Trump standards.

Just as Trump was repeatedly underestimated during the Republican primaries, his aides say he is again being underestimated heading into the general election. There’s a sense in the campaign that things are finally coming together and that Trump can propel himself ahead of Clinton over the next two months.

That optimism is less prevalent outside the campaign, though many operatives are loath to predict an outcome in such a volatile election.

“It’s really quite amazing that after the Trump adventure this is still a competitive race,” said Scott Reed, chief strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and a longtime Republican operative who managed Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign.

Stuart Stevens, Mitt Romney’s former chief strategist, threw cold water on Trump’s enthusiasm in an interview Friday, saying he has yet to see Trump outperform Romney in any state or with any demographic in a way that would signal that he has a chance to win. Stevens said that any talk of Trump having a ground game is “fantasy” because Trump has yet to build a campaign structure anything like Clinton’s. Stevens called Trump’s optimism “childish.”

“I don’t see the path. I just don’t see the path,” Stevens said. “I’ve been in these races where you’re nine points down, then you’re five down — you’re still losing.”

Even among Democrats who wonder why Clinton isn’t doing better, the overall view is that she remains in position to win in November.

“It’s going to be the craziest 60 days we’ve ever seen in politics,” said Mary Anne Marsh, a veteran Democratic consultant who is not working for the campaign but said she remains confident in Clinton’s chances. “Give me any other Republican, and I can tell you exactly how this is going to go down. I can’t do that with Donald Trump.”

She added: “I don’t think we’ve seen the most negative part of this campaign yet, and that’s saying a lot.”

Marsh and other operatives said Clinton will benefit by more directly engaging media and the voters in the final stretch of the race — as Trump has been doing already.

“I look at this race, and I’m thinking that’s not a dumb thing for them have to have done,” said Joe Trippi, a veteran Democratic consultant.

Some changes in Clinton’s operation are already in evidence on the campaign trail. Among them: more interaction with the media; a series of policy speeches that Clinton’s communications director, Jennifer Palmieri, said are “more about her than about him”; and a shift back toward positive messages in television advertising and efforts to present positive elements of Clinton’s biography elsewhere.

By the end of this week, the first in which she has traveled on the same plane as her press corps, Clinton had appeared four times before their cameras to answer questions.

Clinton also played to the cameras and showed a flash of irreverent humor Friday when, after she had left the podium following a short press conference on national security issues, she paused and then returned to answer a shouted question about Trump. With dramatic timing and a sardonic smile, Clinton slowly shook her head and took a breath before addressing Trump’s perhaps ill-advised appearance on a television network backed by the Kremlin.In the meantime, Trump’s campaign has done its best to take advantage of those weaknesses. After he restructured his campaign in August and seemed haltingly to heed the advice of his newly empowered advisers, Trump stepped up his attacks on Clinton’s transparency, her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state and the ties between the State Department and the Clinton Foundation.

Trump has also been moving quickly to build a ground game in battleground states, an effort that stalled under Trump’s previous campaign leaders.

Already, the campaign has opened 30 new campaign offices in 21 states, with a heavy concentration in Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, as first reported by CNN. Trump has also added more variety to his schedule, giving more policy speeches filled with specific ideas instead of just broad promises, visiting a black church in Detroit and talking with small groups of supporters and potential supporters.

In a Friday afternoon conference call with reporters, Republican National Committee officials and Trump’s deputy campaign manager touted their field efforts and promoted their National Day of Action, in which they will aim to knock on more than 350,000 doors across the country on Saturday.

Sean Spicer, the RNC’s chief strategist, said the number of RNC staffers and volunteers in the key states is up dramatically from four years ago.

“The footprint is exponentially larger,” Spicer said.

The Clinton campaign has warned donors and supporters since the convention that the race would be tight and they cannot afford to get too comfortable.

“As I’ve said many, many times: I’ve always thought this was going to be a close election,” Clinton said Thursday.

But there is little question that Clinton’s organization is broader and deeper than Trump’s. In a sign of overall confidence, the campaign has actually expanded its outreach in three traditionally Republican states: Arizona, Utah and Georgia.

Clinton’s top ground organizer, Marlon Marshall, touted what he called an unprecedented network of staff and volunteers in a memo to campaign supporters Friday. He claimed the campaign’s strategy “has enabled us to take full advantage of Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity” but warned that “this election will be harder to win than many people think.”

John Morgan, a Florida donor and supporter, said Clinton’s slim lead is not surprising, given the strong partisan divide nationally.

“Politics is like sports. You have your team, and you are sticking with them all the way. If you are an FSU fan, there is nothing that your team could do to cause you to root against them, much less pull for Florida,” Morgan said, using the football rivalry of Florida State University and the University of Florida to make his point.

A slim margin of victory is still victory, Morgan said, and still would give Clinton a strong governing mandate.

“George Bush lost the total vote and really the electoral college yet entered with what he called a mandate. If she wins by five and over 300 electoral votes, by those standards her mandate should be monarchy-like powers.”

Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart took the opposite position, saying that Clinton cannot afford to just squeak past an opponent as bad as Trump.

“Hillary Clinton needs to win, but she needs a victory which will allow her to say the American public has voted for an agenda that they want her to implement,” he said.

Johnson reported from Washington. Abby Phillip and Philip Rucker in Washington contributed to this report.

By Anne Gearan, Jenna Johnson and John Wagner 

 

 

Slovakia’s prime minister injured in shooting - VIDEO

News line

ECB warns Europe of negative risks due to high public debt
21:27 16.05.2024
France to send another 1,000 gendarmes to New Caledonia
21:00 16.05.2024
Netanyahu Says Israel Can 'Win' Fight Against Hamas in Gaza Without US Help
20:26 16.05.2024
Kazakhstan and Latvia agree on developing Middle Corridor
20:00 16.05.2024
2 Hezbollah fighters killed in Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon
19:30 16.05.2024
Climate activists dye luxury stores in Rome
19:00 16.05.2024
France to send another 1,000 gendarmes to New Caledonia
France to send another 1,000 gendarmes to New Caledonia
18:55 16.05.2024
Assessing Regional Protests: Expert Weighs Impact on Azerbaijan
18:30 16.05.2024
Incomes of Azerbaijani population rise by over 4%
18:00 16.05.2024
Azerbaijan uses colors in weather warning for first time
17:30 16.05.2024
Iran’s flood crisis: Rising waters claim lives
17:00 16.05.2024
Azerbaijani, Armenian parliament speakers have short conversation ahead of their main meeting
16:30 16.05.2024
Presidents of Azerbaijan and Belarus familiarize themselves with Caspian Agro and InterFood Azerbaijan exhibitions
16:00 16.05.2024
NGO chief: Armenia must obtain Azerbaijan's permission for cross-border mining activities
15:30 16.05.2024
Zelensky in Kharkiv: Situation 'difficult' but 'under control,' Russia suffers losses
15:00 16.05.2024
Azerbaijan and Belarus sign documents
14:41 16.05.2024
Insights from IEPF President Umud Mirzayev: Impact of Neighboring Processes on Azerbaijan
14:30 16.05.2024
Slovakia 'on the edge of civil war' from political tension, interior minister says
14:09 16.05.2024
Lukashenko: No closed topics in Belarus-Azerbaijan relations
13:56 16.05.2024
ADA University Hosts "Climate and Water Summit Towards COP29"
13:18 16.05.2024
Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry retorts to French Minister of Interior
13:00 16.05.2024
Man arrested for threatening Serbian President Vucic
Man arrested for threatening Serbian President Vucic
12:48 16.05.2024
Kanako Mabuchi: UN fully committed to supporting COP29 Presidency
12:37 16.05.2024
MP Konul Nurullayeva: COP29 will rally nations worldwide to combat climate change
12:25 16.05.2024
Pashinyan calls signing of Armenia-Azerbaijan delimitation protocol great success
Pashinyan calls signing of Armenia-Azerbaijan delimitation protocol great success
11:55 16.05.2024
Armenia to open embassy in Cyprus
Armenia to open embassy in Cyprus
11:45 16.05.2024
One-on-one meeting between Azerbaijani and Belarusian Presidents starts
11:32 16.05.2024
Official welcome ceremony held for President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko
11:22 16.05.2024
Moscow hosts concert program entitled "Azerbaijan and Russia: manifestation of friendship"
Moscow hosts concert program entitled "Azerbaijan and Russia: manifestation of friendship"
11:21 16.05.2024
Baku court was appealed over extension of Ruben Vardanyan's prison term
11:15 16.05.2024
Azerbaijan, Belarus expanding co-op in urban planning and architecture
11:15 16.05.2024
EDB allocates $1M to eliminate consequences of floods in Kazakhstan
EDB allocates $1M to eliminate consequences of floods in Kazakhstan
10:50 16.05.2024
Slovak PM Fico still in life-threatening condition
10:35 16.05.2024
Speaker of Milli Majlis Sahiba Gafarova arrives in Swiss Confederation on a Working visit
Speaker of Milli Majlis Sahiba Gafarova arrives in Swiss Confederation on a Working visit
10:30 16.05.2024
Oil price sees increase in world markets
Oil price sees increase in world markets
10:25 16.05.2024
New pillars to be installed on Azerbaijan-Armenia border
New pillars to be installed on Azerbaijan-Armenia border
10:16 16.05.2024
Jury selected in New York on case of pro-Armenian Senator Menendez
10:05 16.05.2024
Azerbaijan, Bulgaria discuss bilateral relations
09:55 16.05.2024
Slovak PM expected to survive assassination attempt, ally says - Media
Slovak PM expected to survive assassination attempt, ally says - Media
09:48 16.05.2024
Xi Jinping meets Russia’s Vladimir Putin on state visit to China
Xi Jinping meets Russia’s Vladimir Putin on state visit to China
09:45 16.05.2024
Hamısı