There is revolutionary euphoria syndrome in Karabakh and Armenia. What is revolutionary euphoria syndrome? It means that the replacement of the enthusiasm and joy of the people after the revolution with sudden and sadness, the failure of the innovation brought by the revolution in the country or the incompleteness of the revolution. Did the revolution end in Armenia? No, never. The goal of the revolution was to liberate the Armenians from the Karabakh clan and move to a democratic state building. The revolution did not reach its goal and did not spill over into Karabakh. The real revolution for Armenians is still going on...
Today, in Armenia the "black mass" thinks that the revolution is over. However, Kocharyan's release from prison, the fact that the clan members still have high privileges and power in Karabakh, failure to form stability in Armenia, and some other factors give us reason to say, "No, gentlemen, the revolution of Armenians has not happened." Surely, today, Pashinyan, who heads Armenia, is regarded “as pure as the driven snow” when looking at his predecessors. Undoubtedly, unlike those before him, he is simpler and closer to the people. But he is never more democratic than previous ones. Because problems in democracy are solved by law and rights. In the worst case, through referendum or election, the will of the people...
But Pashinyan tries to solve the problem with the support of the black crowd on the “street.” Pashinyan, who shelled a judge due to release Kocharyan was trying to overthrow the judiciary by calling the people in the streets. However, the court is the third and the independent power, based on the principle of separation of power in democratic countries...
After Kocharyan’s release, Pashinyan's situation became even more complicated. Even if Kocharyan is still in prison, the prime minister, who cannot even promise his so-called regime in Karabakh, what will do so now if Kocharian returns to active politics? He does not even know. However, the first sparks of the new war in Armenia are observed in Karabakh. The new government is fighting again with the regime it has overthrown. It is a very interesting situation, exciting games are going on. It is unclear whether the strength will really be power. Actually, Pashinyan is the prime minister of Armenia, the judge. However, he cannot influence to the court. He has tied hand and foot in the economy, he cannot control Karabakh, pursue a policy contrary to Russia in foreign policy and carry out any radical maneuvers. Hence, despite the fact that Pashinyan came to power, he could not fully grasp the political system's controlling systems. Hence, control is in the hands of Kocharyan who is so afraid of him. Kocharyan quietly does his job in Karabakh and prepares the general to rebel against Pashinyan. Pashinyan calls the people who are the only supporters to fight. The parties are ready to fight. The game starts, the real thrown game starts in Armenia...
Persistent reports threaten Pashinyan more. News about secret clandestine members of the Karabakh clan creates a "bomb" in the Armenian press. Generals who turn against the Pashinian with the flames of Kochiaria can at any time form a military coup in the country. That's what Pashinyan sees and knows. And from Karabakh, the soldier returns his son back to Armenia. What is the prime minister afraid of?
The Karabakh clan can use every measure to ensure its interests. Military coup, conspiracy, black propaganda, slaughter, terror, etc. It should be noted that over the past 25 years, clan leaders have repeatedly used all these "black measures." Now the generals barge in. What could be better than using your son to overthrow Pashinyan ?! Pashinyan recalled his son that he was aware of the current situation. He understands that not only his own life and his seat, but his family members are under threat. In this case, his only place of refuge is the street and the people.
But what are all the people? It is not possible to analyze the psychological state of the Armenian people by simply monitoring the press without Armenia. However, there is something that is obviously visible. It is that the people demand the fulfillment of the promises given to him. The biggest problem for the people is the unemployment and economic crisis. Pashinyan is unable to solve this problem. Thus, the Armenian people,who are the only supporters of Pashinyan, have not been so firmly behind him. Because every citizen is interested in his own pocket rather than the power games.
The situation in Karabakh is even more strenuous. Relations between young liberal groups supporting Pashinyan and those who support Kocharyan have aggravated and conflicts can arise at any moment. On the other hand, the holding of elections in the so-called regime has further aggravated the situation here. Pashinian's control in Karabakh was not already established. Now the release of Kocharyan and the victory of his candidate in the 2020 elections will mean that Pashinyan lose Karabakh completely. It can be assumed that the fate of the "Games of Thrones" in Armenia will also be solved in Karabakh. In order to strengthen Pashinyan's power, the clans in Karabakh should be severed, and their leadership in Karabakh must be governed. Because the power of the opposition clan in Karabakh creates serious threats to him. Kocharyan considers Karabakh as the key to the coming to power. If he is able to fully formulate his direct or unofficial power in Karabakh, he can seriously "strike" the Pashinyan government with the independence of Karabakh and with the help of Russia.
Nijat Ismayilov
