Karabakh Armenians, who have been deeply depressed after the war, are now looking for a tranquil place to live. Despite the fact that Russia and Armenia have repeatedly distorted figures on the return of Armenians who fled the war zone to Karabakh, the migrants say they do not want to live in these places again.

A UN survey found that more than 85 percent of Armenians no longer wanted to live in Karabakh. A very small part did not rule out the possibility of relocating under high security conditions.

Commenting on the survey and statistics to Eurasia Diary, Dr. Irfan Kaya Ulger, a professor at Kocaeli University in Turkey, and Rovshan Ibrahimov, a professor at Hankuk University in South Korea, took a different approach to the issue. Commenting on the reluctance of indigenous Armenian population to return Karabakh, Professor Rovshan Ibrahimov attributed this to the fact that Armenians do not feel safe.

"The UN is a serious organisation and its research is considered credible. Let me note that these figures have already been reflected in many sources. In general, there several reasons that the Armenians in Karabakh do not want to return. The most important of these is unreliability. They want to live in a more comfortable and safe place in terms of security. In fact, the danger is their misconceptions and myths against the Azerbaijani Turks, which have become their real scourge for years, and therefore they are afraid to live together. Another reason is the current lack of economic base in Karabakh. As you know, until Azerbaijan liberated the lands of Karabakh, the so-called regime continued its political and economic activities there. But now they are completely deprived of it. Even education and health are paralysed, as specialists in both fields have now left those places for security reasons,” the expert said.

According to Professor Irfan Kaya Ulger, Russia is the only obstacle to stability in the region, and therefore some people do not consider it safe to resettle there.

“Russia may re-create a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh for its own interests in the near future. They are expected to continue this by raising the issue of giving autonomy to Karabakh. Russia can also do this through some extremist forces that want to create a so-called "Artsakh republic" in Karabakh. Therefore, it will inevitably lead to new tensions and conflicts. In fact, Russia does not want any country in the Caucasus to achieve political and economic stability. Some Armenians who want to live in peace understand it very clearly".

The Turkish expert also touched upon the possibility of Armenians living peacefully under Azerbaijani law intending to return to Karabakh in the near future.

“I think the real problem is the uncertainty about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. This type of status has always been a problem for many post-Soviet countries. I can pint out Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Transnistria. Even Kosovo, in the former Yugoslavia, was once an autonomous region. All these are the legacy of the USSR and the difficulties it created. Everyone agrees that Nagorno-Karabakh is Azerbaijani territory. However, some forces in Armenia still do not abandon the concept of autonomous status. I think that whenever the issue of autonomy comes up, the Azerbaijani side must have full authority. Armenians can live there in peace, only if the status of autonomy is managed by Azerbaijan".

The experts also spoke about Russia's report on the return of 50,000 Armenians to Karabakh. According to both experts, Russia's statement is not true, and Moscow is trying to maneuver in Karabakh with such information.

"I think these statistics are one-sided. To be more precise, this information is only provided by the Russians but no one else. Because so far these figures are not reflected in any source. Perhaps, these figures are just statistics registered as a result of the subsequent return of several hundred Armenians from Karabakh to Armenia and the journeys they have done repeatedly. The most important thing is that the name is not mentioned in the information. In general, statistics should be prepared only on the basis of the names and number of people returning to Karabakh in one way. I think that Armenia, as well as the Russian side, is deliberately preparing such statistics to show that the number of migrants to Karabakh has increased. Therefore, I consider such information incorrect," Rovshan Ibrahimov said.

Professor Irfan Kaya Ulger also said that it is very dangerous to rely on Russia's statements. According to him, Russia wants to establish its presence in Karabakh by simply maneuvering with such unconfirmed figures.

"Without Armenians, Russia has no excuse to dominate Karabakh. Russia is spreading this information by making illusions and pretending that the Armenians are eager to return. However, statistics also confirm that Armenians feel safer in Yerevan, where they take refuge more than in Karabakh. Therefore, in my opinion, these figures are unfounded."

Professor Ulger also spoke about the problems facing Armenia in the near future. He said that Armenians who left Karabakh after the war and took refuge in Armenia will soon face a more difficult situation.

“Armenia is now behind the opportunities of the 1990s. Today, not only those who fled Karabakh to Armenia, but also the local population are in a difficult situation. Along with the economic situation, the psychological problems creates a wide range of tensions in the country. In the past, the diaspora provided various grants and assistance, but now they have no effect on the development of the country's economy. The only hope of Armenia, which has extremely limited natural resources, is to move away from separatist tendencies and establish real and peaceful relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. If the current leader of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, can take a pragmatic line, the political support behind it will increase. Opponents of Pashinyan demostrate their adventurous foreign policy targets. I believe that Pashinyan can be successful if the elections are held under the current conditions".

Political expert Rovshan Ibrahimov said that Armenia will face a big migration after the pandemic. He added that Armenians fleeing Karabakh and taking refuge in Yerevan now plan not only to stay in Armenia, but also to emigrate other countries.

“In this case, the country's population will decrease sharply and not a single Armenian will live in Karabakh. This shows that time works in our favor. "

By Elnur Enveroğlu