As Ednews reported, the July 2023 edition of the IRMO Brief, authored by Krševan Antun Dujmović and Peter Marko Tase, deals with the situation in the Karabakh region in the South Caucasus.

 

The authors also analyze the influence of Turkiye as a key player in the South Caucasus and its contribution to the Azerbaijani victory in 2020.

 

Ednews interviewed one of the authors, Senior Associate at the Institute for Development and International Relations, Krševan Antun Dujmović:

 

- Mr. Krševan Antun, according to the IRMO Brief, what was the significance of the Karabakh region in the military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the fall of 2020?

 

- The Karabakh region's significance lies in its long-standing occupation since the first Karabakh War in 1994. While Azerbaijan has managed to liberate some parts of the territory and certain districts between Karabakh and Armenia, the situation remains untenable for them. This conflict is part of a larger pattern of frozen conflicts in the region, similar to Moldova, where breakaway provinces contribute to instability. All countries should have the right to exercise their sovereign rights within their recognized borders.

 

Azerbaijan sought a peaceful diplomatic solution, but tensions persisted after the war, leading to occasional skirmishes and conflicts. Azerbaijan's intervention and operation were seen as legitimate and a major step towards lasting peace in the South Caucasus. However, achieving lasting peace would require resolving territorial disputes and occupied territories in the region and throughout the former Soviet Union.

 

The importance of the Karabakh region is so significant that lasting peace will not be attainable without fully addressing the situation. Azerbaijan cannot accept a part of its territory being taken away or controlled by a neighboring nation. Resolving these disputes and returning to normalcy is crucial for establishing normal relations between different countries and promoting social and economic development.

 

- What recent statements by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan indicate a possible recognition of Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, and what implications could this have on the region's stability?

 

Armenian recognition of Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan is crucial for the normalization of the situation in the South Caucasus. However, this move could face resistance within Armenia, potentially leading to unrest and changes in the government. Despite these short-term challenges, it remains the only viable path to resolve the issue and improve relations between the two countries. The Azerbaijani government has expressed its willingness to protect the rights of the Armenian minority, making recognition essential for restoring Azerbaijan's full sovereignty over the region.

Nevertheless, Prime Minister Pashignan's ambition to pursue this recognition carries risks, given the sensitive political climate in the region and Armenia. While it would require considerable courage, the potential unrest may not be predictable in terms of its extent or impact on the government's stability. However, it is evident that the move could have a significant influence on Armenian society, at least in the short term.

 

- In the context of the 2020 ceasefire, what measures are you suggesting for a just peace treaty to bring lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Karabakh region?

 

- The 2020 armistice ceasefire agreement, reached under Moscow's patronage, was somewhat understandable given Russia's historical interest and influence in the South Caucasus. However, considering Russia's negative track record in the region, especially with its actions in Georgia, the reliance solely on Russian peacekeepers should be reconsidered.

 

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 raised concerns about relying solely on Russian peacekeepers. Instead, a larger international involvement, including the US, UN peacekeepers, and European Union participation, could be necessary to ensure lasting and just peace. Russia has shown a pattern of using unresolved conflicts to increase its influence and divide countries, rather than genuinely seeking stability.

 

This region, its conflicts, and the Karabakh issue should garner more attention and potentially involve Turkey, as a NATO member, to serve as guarantors of lasting peace in the South Caucasus, while respecting the internationally recognized borders and territorial integrity of countries like Azerbaijan and Armenia. A broader international effort is crucial to achieving sustainable peace in the region.

 

- In your analysis, how does the IRMO Brief assess Turkey's role as a key player in the South Caucasus and its contribution to the Azerbaijani victory in 2020?

 

- It was stated in the paper and considered a fact of life that Turkey provided military assistance in terms of intelligence, in terms of technology, and in terms of military equipment. And this equipment and this support largely contributed to the Regani victory. And it's a legitimate move. We saw Turkish equipment applied also in Ukraine. So this equipment and this support were for a legit cause, for a legit aim, and this was to support Azerbaijani forces to regain control of big parts of Karabakh, which is a part of Azerbaijan. And this high technology is also contributing to swift military victories. Rather than having a war of attrition, obsolete military equipment, and a lot of artillery, which creates a long war with unclear status, it's creating a lot of damage and suffering. And it takes a high human cost in human lives on both sides, both military personnel and civilians alike. So the better the technology, the better the outcome of the war. So Turkey considers the situation right? They know the region, and of course, their support was significant, and it contributed to a short, successful blitz that lasted just for a month and a half.

 

-Can you elaborate on the specific contributions made by Turkiye that influenced the outcome of the 2020 military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Karabakh region?

 

- Turkey has a border with Armenia, a border with the Nakhchivan region of Azerbaijan, and a long historical presence in the Caucasus. Hence, it's normal that the country, which has a long presence and strong ethnolinguistic links with the Azerbaijani people, should be present in the region. And as said before, Turkey played a major role in terms of consulting, advising Baku, delivering technology and the right equipment, and giving political support, because we should not forget that Armenia is a part of the Euro-Asian Union governed by Moscow. It's also part of the Collective Security Treaty. Russia also has a military base in Jumri to, you know, maintain the balance between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Armenia is a landlocked country; it's three times smaller in terms of population and economy compared to Azerbaijan. So it always looked to Moscow in order to get help, and this way it planned to rival Azerbaijan. So it's legitimate that Azerbaijan, considering all the links that I just mentioned, also sought help in Ankarain in order to make this balance more right. And we also need to consider that Turkey is a member of NATO, is a Western ally, regardless of some recent disputes between the West or between Washington and Turkey, and that Russia is basically launching not just a war against Ukraine but is also considering the West its enemy. So we need to place all of these facts, and consider them in order to make a broader and clearer picture, to make the interconnectivity between different things that are going on in events that are going on in the region, in relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in the region, and to bring them into a broader context.

 

-How has Türkiye's involvement in the South Caucasus impacted the region's dynamics, and what are the implications for the broader geopolitical situation?

 

Turkey's involvement had a big impact on the region's dynamics. And it sort of galvanized the unfolding of events that took place in 2020 and are taking place now. Because this support from Ankara to Baku allowed Baku to get more than just military support, it also allowed Baku, the Azerbaijani leadership, and even the Azerbaijani people to feel the support of the strongest country in the region, which is Turkey. I mean, considering the region of the South Caucasus, the Middle East, and the eastern Mediterranean, where Turkey lies, this was diplomatic and political support that was needed because, as I said before, Armenia was receiving a lot of help from Russia, a lot of political and military support from Russia, from Moscow, regardless of the fact that the Kremlin was trying to portray itself as a fair and honest broker. On the other hand, the Kremlin was always putting more leverage on the Armenian side.

 

Considering that Russia is now fully exposed to the war, Ukraine has lost a lot of forces and a lot of strength. This opens even more doors to Turkey, which is the second-biggest military force in NATO with almost 90 million people. And with the involvement of Turkey, more balance can be found between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which needs an ally like Turkey. And with this involvement in the region, Turkey's role is positive, and constructive, and will contribute to a lasting peace because Armenia will also realize they have a strong country supporting their opponent, Azerbaijan. So they need to consider this fact because Turkey's support for Azerbaijan is unwavering. And this is good because it will contribute to the solution, to the resolution of the solution in Karabakh, and to forging a lasting and just peace in the region.

 

-  Based on the IRMO Brief, what are the potential challenges in achieving lasting peace in the Karabakh region, and what role can other international stakeholders play in resolving the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

 

The challenge to achieving lasting peace lies in Armenia's unwillingness to recognize Karabakh. PM Pashinyan's statements may have been a test, and he could back off due to political reasons or pressure from various sources. Russia's behavior has been destructive, posing a threat to stability in the region, and it cannot be trusted to bring about a just and lasting peace. More involvement from the West, including the EU and the US, is necessary to ensure stability, along with Turkey's cooperation as a significant NATO ally.

 

Ulviyya Shahin