After the February revolution of 1917, 3 nations in the South Caucasus region (Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia) started to ensure their freedom in order, like other republics that left the Russian Empire. In order to prevent a potential threat from foreign forces, these nations formed the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic (TDFR) on April 22, 1918. Diverging goals of the three major groups (Armenians, Azerbaijanis,and Georgians) quickly jeopardized the TDFR's existence. Facing a renewed Ottoman offensive in May 1918, Georgian delegates in the Seim announced that the TDFR was unable to continue, and declared the Democratic Republic of Georgia independent on 26 May. With that, the idea of TDFR collapsed.

 

But, after the stabilization of the processes in the South Caucasus, can this idea come up again for future prospects? That is, can the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic, which was established 105 years ago, be established?

 

We discussed the agenda with experts from all three countries. 

 

First, Azerbaijani political scientist Tofig Abbasov shared his opinions on the issue with us:

 

 

 

“If we look at the history, of course, there was a federative republic in which 3 nations activated together, for a short time. However, the goals of the radical Armenian nationalists present here and the activities of Dashnaksyut's party here are among the main issues that endanger this idea. As their goal was not to secure the sovereignty of the 3 nations in the region as a joint strong alliance, but simply to get rich at the expense of their neighbors and to appropriate other people's lands, the foundation of creating a common goal within the seym in these processes was not stable.  Despite the fact that more than 1 century has passed, the Armenian side has not given up its black deeds yet. The relations with the neighbors in the region, the fact that the country's sovereignty is under threat, and also the fact that Armenians entrust the solution of their problems to the fate of countries like Iran and Russia make this idea completely impossible today. However, I think that the South Caucasus region is a compact region, and the creation of a small model like the EU, rather than a common republic, would be more beneficial to these 3 countries. The problems they have in the world can be solved more quickly, they can live more flexibly, and so on. Although it is possible to realize this idea from a theoretical point of view, as I mentioned, as long as the current position of the Armenian side does not change, this and similar alternatives will not happen in practice.” 

 

Tofig Abbasov also spoke about the world's attitude towards the creation of a joint alliance. He noted that if we look at the past, the Baltic countries regained their sovereignty as a strong collective when the Soviet Union was still in existence.

 

"In other words, if the 3 countries of the South Caucasus come together and create an alliance in such a situation, I don't believe that the attitude from abroad will be negative. Here, only the governments of Baku, Tbilisi and Yerevan should approach each other with understanding. However, especially if such a thing is ensured, both Georgia and Armenia should also accept the leadership of Azerbaijan in this alliance. Our country, which is dominant in all aspects, should be the leading party in such an alliance."

 

Georgian expert and political analyst Gia Khukhashvili also expressed his opinions on the idea of a common union.

 

 

During the conversation, he noted that it is too early to talk about a confederation or a union like the EU, and it is quite difficult. 

 

"Because there can be a lot of disagreement on the 3 governments. It makes the process more difficult for Armenians to depend on Russia. Also, such an alliance may not have a good effect on the relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. As Georgia maintains stable relations with both Caucasus countries, it will be easier to adapt to this process. Ethnic diversity located in the Caucasus cannot harm the union. The only negative feature of the South Caucasus Union is the actual hostility of the Yerevan government towards Azerbaijan. It is important that Armenians and Azerbaijanis eliminate the problems that happened in the past. Only this can give impetus to general development. From the economic point of view, Azerbaijan is of special importance for the Union. The presence of a common union can have a positive effect on the economic and political development of all three countries in the future," the expert noted.

 

Armenian political activist Ishkhan Verdiyan shared similar views with political scientist Tofig Abbasov. 

 

 

"The formation of the Unified Caucasian Union seems very difficult to me, it happened easily because we were part of the USSR when the South Caucasian Soviet Socialist Republic was formed. I do not believe that the countries that have tasted independence should give part of their administration to the Caucasian Union. As another reason, there will be a problem in the processes of unified management between the 3 countries. Politically, it may seem unlikely, but economically, it may be possible. At the same time, there is an excellent option for the creation of such a strong economic enclave, a non-political structure that would unite Transcaucasian republics such as Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. This option is the best for our region. I think that an economic and strategic configuration similar to the European Union will help solve all problems in the South Caucasus. And that would be a  real future. In principle, this should be the case between such close neighbors." 

 

 

Akbar Shabandayev, Khayal Gulmammadov, and Ulviyya Shahin