Egypt and Indonesia are the largest in their regions, but currently they are not influential, but the reasons are not only military forces but the cultural, enlightenment and scientific role - the absence of coalitions, most notably the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) which includes 140 countries, representing 70% of the UN member states. It is necessary to take advantage of the presidency of Azerbaijan for NAM session this and try to activate the role of the youth of NAM by holding a conference of NAM Youth.
Economic problems and uncertain future of internal and external pressures
OPEC and pressure to cut production to raise the price of oil to above $ 70 a barrel, as the reduction affects negatively on Egypt and Indonesia - no government has been able to redistribute incomes substantially reduced corruption, and the privileges of cartels of merchants, rich, and who allied with them in power of State organs, army, security and administration thereof.
And failed to reduce their evasion of taxes and fees for investment and spending, the decision to float EGP last November, recommended by the International Monetary Fund, has played a major role in increasing the costs of sovereign debt. The local currency has lost more than half its value because of this step, which is a factor in increasing the cost of our dollar debts to the outside world in terms of Egyptian pound, so it is not strange to find the benefits of external debt is high in the budget 2017 - 2018 by about 233% of the same item in the previous budget and all increases in support assessed even in the budgets came to the exchange rate difference and not a consensual increase from the government.
The consequences of this are the state's recourse to loans on difficult terms and the emergence of commercial and non-commercial monopolies that hinder, prevent and block the establishment and blossoming of small and medium-sized enterprises that are based on innovation and job creation - where the real role of banks - to focus on large projects in the field of energy costing one of them several billion dollars. On the other hand, the actual allocations for the establishment of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially outside the big cities, are negligible compared to the allocations of large projects. Obviously, the biggest cost of economic reform and its cost are borne by low-income people especially those whose taxes and fees are directly deducted.
Monetary policies and unfortunately link the national currencies under the loans from the IMF in the US Federal Reserve - where Money Cartels in America are always manipulating interest rates or so-called Libor, and America had a previous scandal both in 1990s or in 2009 following the global financial recession because of this story of in order to revive the US economy, that is the story that happened with Barclays Bank of England.
Alliances
The two countries may have a vague vision of forming strong and effective alliances that may avoid them alliances with the United States and the West, which will neither allow Egypt nor Indonesia to be independent in the resolution. Currently, China, Russia and Germany are probably the most influential countries in the world today and dependable countries.
Religious Extremism
Maybe my presence as a member of a group vision of Russia and the Islamic world strategy and that of the founders of Egypt and Indonesia being the two essential elements in the Islamic Cooperation Organization, the very important goal of his group, namely the fight against terrorism through information and dialogue between intellectuals, writers, journalists and clerics from all countries of the Muslim world and to propose practical solutions to combat this phenomenon, through the innovation of modern means to reach young people in these countries and harangued including understand it, and also the presence of Yevgeny Primakov prize of 50 thousand dollars awarded annually to the best work speaks about Russia and the Muslim world, and also we have the problem of returnee terrorists, under the terms of statistics of the United Nations that one of every seven terrorists returning commits a terrorist incident within his home country, while one of every nine commits a terrorist incident outside of his home country.
There are always environmental problems, educational problems, absence and migration of scientific cadres associated with an identity crisis, social problems such as poverty, and also the concept of democracy.
Foreign Policy
Relationship with China
Since the resumption of relations in 1990, there has been a tidal situation especially with regard to the Sea of China and the great American intervention due to the Asia-Pacific Agreement. But after the American withdrawal from Asia-Pacific Agreement and the European Union imposed sanctions on palm oil products from Indonesia, China became the refuge of China and Egypt.
The two countries could play a third party to export the Chinese industries in response to the US embargo. Also Asian International Infrastructure Bank, BRICS Bank and the Silk Road Fund will replace the International Monetary Fund in case of borrowing - and also we can circumvent the subject of currency war and the issue of LIBOR through the use of the local currencies, which is a new orientation or we may use barter, because after the bankruptcy of America, the European Union and the Gulf countries we will have nothing but China in such matters, but how can we promulgate a good agreement that is the matter that preserves the sovereignty of the country?
China is also a good labor market for experts from my practical experience there.
Relationship with the U.S.
I think that America has proved to the world that it is an unreliable party through its current president, who represents the real face of extreme liberalism, which does not allow dealing with others except based on the principle of "Lord/Slave" America may try to coax Egypt and Indonesia with some incentives or facilitations, or raising the credit rating so that the two countries have a quality certificate for investment and borrowing - but people will be victims of this kind of fraud in the near future.
European Union
The EU is only Germany in my view, because it is the main gate and the largest economy in it, so if our relationship is good with the Germans, our relationship will be good with Europe, but to get better with the Germans, they have other conditions of "civil society, Youth and Cultural Exchange Programs, Freedom of Expression". Therefore, it is important to note that Germany's relationship is developing and increasing dramatically for America with China, its largest trading partner, as well as with Russia.
Russia and Eurasia
Russia has an initiative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, "Group of Strategic Vision - Russia and the Islamic World", which includes Indonesia. Indeed, Russia is one of the most promising markets with which trade can be developed.
It is a key to the Caspian Sea, Eurasia, and Russia has a lot to offer to Egypt and Indonesia, as a major partner of China in all its major initiatives, and the volume of trade exchange rose to 100 billion dollars, which was recently disclosed at the Forum Vladivostok, an attractive country for investment, and has a research base in areas of extreme uniqueness and specialization, such as space and aviation, heavy, military and petrochemical industries, it can also contribute to the development of relations between the two countries and itself, as it is the entrance to about 12 countries from the former Soviet republics, and Russia is still the lifeline of these countries.
Middle East
There are good relations with Egypt, as well as with Iran, where there is some positive cooperation between the two countries in the field of science, education and tourism, and more than expected is the MOU between the Central Bank of Iran and the Financial Services Authority of Indonesia, which will allow the use of Iranian and Indonesian currencies in trade between the two countries. Indonesia has the same position as Egypt on the Palestinian issue, and there are no normal diplomatic relations between Israel and Indonesia.
The Saudi investment in Indonesia represents an alternative source of funds to support economic growth. During king Salman recent visit, the two governments signed a series of agreements, notably a joint venture of a US$ 6 billion refinery in Silakap, Central Java, between state-owned oil companies Pertamina and Saudi Aramco with a $ 1 billion promise of Saudi funding for economic development in Indonesia. Saudi interest is a very necessary opportunity for both countries to diversify their economies and reduce reliance on China from Saudi viewpoint. Strong religious legitimacy can also open doors to investment from other Muslim-majority countries in the Middle East to invest in Indonesia after Saudi Arabia's leadership.
Global interests
China, as we know, does not interfere politically in the internal affairs of the countries, nor does it seek protectionism and market closures as the U.S., which is also a reliable partner with a good previous experience in the Arab world and Africa, and through its initiatives, especially One Belt One Road Initiative, via-which Egypt and Indonesia will play a greater role therein, especially after America's exit from the Asia-Pacific Agreement.
On the second question, Russia will also enter Africa in partnership with China and under the umbrella of China, according to the greater partnership between the two countries, and Russia's distinction in areas that can benefit from it and benefit others through satellites, and giving maps of Africa's wealth to African countries, whereas a major Russian-African Cooperation Forum will be held in Moscow in October 2018.
China's entry into Africa was the oldest, with an estimated investment of about 300 billion dollars in 2020, in addition the Forum of Chinese African Cooperation FOCAC and supporting major projects worth 60 billion dollars since 2015 so far in Africa, all of this strengthens cooperation.
China and Russia are the two countries that have accepted the purchase of palm oil at a good price from Indonesia when the European Union recently imposed restrictions on its purchase because of some environmental damage associated with the cultivation and harvesting of palm oil, a position that is in the favor of both of China and Russia especially this year.
Chinese yuan vs. the U.S. dollar
According to the real standards of income, a salary of 1000 dollars in China, equivalent to 4000 or 5000 dollars in the United States, because China is a country of large industrial, agricultural and service production, so the value of what the citizen gets in China under the same income is greater than what the American citizen receives, the latter who now complains about the high price of fuel and services, and the collapse of the social and health security system - This has led the Chinese government to encourage the birth of the second child, after the high rate of well-being of the Chinese people, so that the child is also cared for governmentally, and this since 2015 to become the country's largest manpower in the world without rival.
China neither manipulate the value of LIBOR, nor stock exchanges, nor credit rating institutions and has the largest growth rate in the world approaching 6.8% twice and half times the US, it also has financial institutions parallel to the US, British and French-controlled IMF, as China lends to better terms and operates with the principle of "win-win" with partners, especially in the Silk Road Initiative, whereas Yuan has entered the international currency basket since 2016. Thus Countries can transfer their cash reserves to Yuan without any concern. It is worth saying that China has transferred 18 billion Yuan to Egypt in 2016 as a deposit with the Central Bank of Egypt as a kind of support for the Egyptian economy.
The United States owes China about 1.5 trillion dollars in bonds in the Federal Reserve, as well as the trade balance between the two countries 4 times in favor of China, not in favor of the United States, and thus Yuan has become one of the most accepted currencies in the future. This is also a monetary strategic matter linked to the alliances of nations, as well as the media that America is making a war against anyone trying to get out of their financial and monetary hegemony. Thus, reviving the role of the Non-Aligned Movement can be a strong response to this American hegemony.
Ahmed Moustafa
Political analyst, Director of the Asia Center for Studies
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