Azerbaijan could undermine balance in favor of Russia - Political Analyst | Eurasia Diary -

18 September, Friday

Azerbaijan could undermine balance in favor of Russia - Political Analyst

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Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov visited Azerbaijan on December 2. During his two days official visit, he discussed the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict’s settlement.

Azerbaijani Political analyst Ahmad Alili shares his view with Eurasia Diary about Lavrov's visit and possibilities in South Caucasus over Nagorno Karabakh problem.

A. Alili thinks that any military activity is not going to be tolerated by Moscow and demonstrated Kremlin resolution on keeping peace in the region

"Lavrov declared important points for Azerbaijan: First of all, Nagorno-Karabakh communities should communicate; secondly, Nagorno-Karabakh communities have equal rights in determining the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh," political analyst stated.

According to him, Russia advocates for "hard confidence-building measures", not soft ones - the tactic favored by the officials in Baku also. Additionally, Russia is keen to keep it's position (first among equals) among the OSCE MG co-chair countries.

Political analyst touched upon the change in Russian position on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. He considers that Russia is interested in an incomplete solution.

"Unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh problem prevents success of Eurasian integration and participation of Azerbaijan in Russian projects."

Ahmad Alili explains that activation of tensions in the region, for example, Iran, pushes Azerbaijan towards military alliances especially Moscow-based. But he excludes full membership of such alliances. Eurasia Diary asked political analyst that is there any chance for acquiring the observer status of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)?

"Azerbaijan will seek for maintaining a balance between the European Union and CSTO. Nevertheless, it is possible that Azerbaijan could undermine this balance in favor of CSTO even if for the short-term if Azerbaijan has more benefits under CSTO," Ahmad Alili concluded his opinions


By Ulvi Ahmedli

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