How the US-Iran war in the Middle East could affect the South Caucasus?

Analytics 13:00 14.01.2020

The tension between the United States and Iran in the Middle East has completely risen to high level since December, last year.  Iraq is only country in the region possesses centerpiece in this escalation. At the beginning,  US air forces launched strikes against Shi’a militant group, Kata’ib Al -Hezbollah, is the part of Pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Forces (Ḥashd ash-Shaʿbī). Strikes caused many causalities in Shi’a armored group that led strong attacks on US embassy in Baghdad by radical Shi’as protests were provoked by Islamic Republic. On 3 January, Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Forces’ commander Qasem Soleimani was assassinated in Baghdad in the US air strikes. Qasem Soleimani was considered ruthless terrorist by the White House, who had key role in navigating operations against US troops in Iraq and trained Shi’a militant groups, which is included in the list of international terrorism have been operating in the Middle East. Such move by the US covered Iran with mourning and made him to pay retaliation on the killing of Soleimani. After five days, IRGC launched ballistic missiles on two US bases in Iraq in order to keep its belligerent reputation in the World.  However, the strikes did not cause any loss in American army.

Iran is the one of three powerful countries in the Middle East which for two decades has been reinforcing its position in the territory by using political, ideological and military elements.  It is obvious to everybody that ideological influence of Iran in the regional countries, such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen is mainly adhere Shi’asim, consequently turned into political and military sphere. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Housis in Yemen, Shi’a militant groups of Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and armored Alavi groups in Syria play significant role in the strengthening of Iranian power in the Middle East. Tehran has also strong influence in Bahrain, eastern province of Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Trump administration cannot accept Iranian influence in Iraq.  Therefore, it decided to utilize strict measures in order to keep Tehran out of Iraq, such as air strikes on Shi’a militant groups and the killing of Qasem Soeimani. Iraq has unfolded into military and political battle between the US and Iran.

The rise of the tension between Washington and Tehran could bring negative consequences and trigger war in the Middle East that could push more than million people in the death. The obstacle to peace and stability in this geography is bigger than ever before.  When the crises flared up more, it has made regional countries to concern over unpredicted terrible results. No any country in the region, also in Western Europe seems ready to play mediating role in the eradicating escalation and normalizing relations between the United States and Iran. In general, the war in the Middle East would not only ravage and annihilate the whole region, but also would entail huge damages in the global economy

US-Iran war would also create horrible effects in South Caucasus.  Where South Caucasus located?  If we look at map of Eurasia, we could see that South Caucasus situated at the crossroad is the path from the Middle East and Central Asia to Europe, and shares borders with Caspian and Black Sea. Countries in southern part of Caucasus-Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia have diplomatic relations with both Iran and the United States. Georgia is especially more closer to the West than Azerbaijan and Armenia. The United States has projects and numerous companies in these Caucasian countries. Islamic Republic of Iran has firm bilateral relations with Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia in the fields of politics, economics, energy, trade, tourism, and culture. Iran is the second country to supply gas to Armenia, also electricity. Georgia is the strong transit country for Iranian tourists. Azerbaijan and Iran have been implementing joint projects on the development of International North-South Corridor, such as the construction of Iran-Azerbaijan railway and terminals. Azerbaijan is also second major Shia country that shares cultural and religious ties with Iran.

Iran covers with eleven countries in where the United States has military bases. In Western Asia, such as Turkey, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, also in Central Asia, such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – in these countries the United States set up its military entities. Washington trust all bases in these countries that strategically focus on not only strengthening his military and political power in Asia, but also encircle Iran.

Картинки по запросу

Any country in this geography is threatened by Tehran not allow US to fulfil offensive attack through its territory to Iran.  Commanders in Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps released statement about this. That means, if Iran encounters any US attack from any regional country, Revolutionary Guards Corps will strike there with missiles.

In countries of South Caucasus there are no American military bases. Maybe, Washington has underground plan to set up military facilities in South Caucasus, especially in Georgia and Azerbaijan that might be happened in the future. Also, Armenia is impossible for American troops, because this country hosts Russian army and is military ally of Russia. Therefore, Iran during war could not strike this great region under the pretext of hosting US military bases. But, it does not mean that the South Caucasus would be far from war in the Middle East. War will obviously affect the region: First, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia would be swamped under huge flow of refugees from Iran that could entail economic and social catastrophe in the region. Second, there are claims that in case of war happens in Iran, Russia under the urgency would launch his army through South Caucasus to protect Iran, which will violate the sovereignty of Georgia and Azerbaijan. Third, the United States during war would obligate Azerbaijan and Georgia to allow pushing its aircraft forces into their airspaces for launching strikes to Iran that could put two countries under peril. Fourth, US attacks against Iran would stall the exportation of gas and electricity to Armenia that could absolutely paralyze country. Fifth, we could see radical Shia groups in Azerbaijan and Georgia are ideologically supported by Iran. For instance, there were riots happened in the part of Baku, capital of Azerbaijan four years ago,  in where most residents adhere to Shi’asim , but it was suppressed by security forces.  Shi’asim policy of Iran in Azerbaijan is very strong that IRGC could use it against government to distance itself from the US.    Such factors have been more scrutinized by the governments in three countries of South Caucasus for long-term.

It should be noted that Iran is second country to have more powerful influence in South Caucasus. The United States, at lesser degree has influence in the South Caucasus, despite Georgia is pro-western country, also its active role in Azerbaijan’s oil and gas resources. In reality, the South Caucasus in the eye of the United States is corridor from Asia to Europe that takes important and significant part in the spheres of economy, transports and energy, in which generally Georgia and Azerbaijan play essential role. Furthermore, there could be expectation that high officials of the United States, such as the State Secretary, Defense and Intelligence Secretaries at the period with escalation of tension with Iran visit South Caucasian countries in order to notify their own military and security strategies in this region

War between the US and Iran in the Middle East has not happened yet. If this war break out, we could see other unpredicted negative consequences in South Caucasus.

 

Written by Abdullayev Yunis.

 

IEPF issued a statement regarding Azerbaijani children at the UN Human Rights Council

News line

Palestinian man shot dead after stabbing Israeli soldier during West Bank raid
21:20 10.07.2025
Israel has agreed to 'significant steps' to improve humanitarian situation in Gaza: EU foreign policy chief
21:00 10.07.2025
EU aims to mobilize up to $11.7B in investments for Ukraine's reconstruction
20:45 10.07.2025
UNAIDS warns funding collapse could lead to 6M new HIV infections, 4M deaths
20:30 10.07.2025
UN report sounds alarm on climate health risks for world's aging population
20:00 10.07.2025
Merz: Germany fully supports Ukraine's plans to join EU
19:45 10.07.2025
Azerbaijani citizens involved in Wagner armed group arrested - State Security Service conducts operation
19:15 10.07.2025
Luka Modric signs one-year contract with Milan
19:00 10.07.2025
Rubio: US hopes to persuade NATO allies to transfer some Patriot systems to Ukraine
18:45 10.07.2025
Zelenskyy: 200 agreements with total value of over €10B ready to be signed
18:30 10.07.2025
Von der Leyen's EU Commission survives Parliament confidence vote
18:15 10.07.2025
SOCAR becomes jersey sponsor of Turkish First League side
18:00 10.07.2025
Azerbaijan takes leading postion in UN digital trade survey
17:45 10.07.2025
Ex-NBA player Ben McLemore sentenced to over 8 years in prison for rape
17:30 10.07.2025
Russia warns Armenia of sanctions risk
17:15 10.07.2025
COP29 President, COP30 President-designate hold discussions at OPEC seminar
17:00 10.07.2025
Ilham Aliyev's meeting with Nikol Pashinyan was constructive
16:55 10.07.2025
Baku says Azerbaijan, Armenia agreed to continue dialogue in bilateral format
16:45 10.07.2025
Peskov: Baku-Yerevan peace treaty will bring stability to South Caucasus
16:30 10.07.2025
Azerbaijan refunds over 94M manats of VAT to consumers
16:15 10.07.2025
Amnesty International slams US sanctions on UN Rapporteur Francesca Albanese
16:00 10.07.2025
China pushes back 50% US 'security' tariffs on copper imports
15:45 10.07.2025
Top Southeast Asian diplomats hold summit with China’s foreign minister
15:30 10.07.2025
Israeli strikes on Gaza leave 97 Palestinians killed, dozens more injured in past day
15:15 10.07.2025
Messi creates history in MLS, becomes first player to achieve rare feat
15:00 10.07.2025
Heavy rain delays over 300 flights in New Delhi
14:45 10.07.2025
Shamakhi to host conference on Modern Information Space and Freedom of Religious Belief
14:30 10.07.2025
At least 28 killed, dozens injured in pre-dawn Israeli strikes across Gaza Strip
14:15 10.07.2025
Court orders arrest of former South Korean president
14:00 10.07.2025
US nuclear-powered submarine makes first port call in Iceland
13:45 10.07.2025
Israeli soldier killed during attempted Hamas abduction in southern Gaza, IDF says
13:30 10.07.2025
ADY and China Railways reach agreement to increase BTK capacity
13:15 10.07.2025
U.S. measles cases hit highest level in 33 years,
13:00 10.07.2025
Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia discuss co-op in hydrocarbon sector
12:45 10.07.2025
UK, France to order more Storm Shadow missiles, plan next-generation replacements
12:30 10.07.2025
Houthis kidnapped crew members of Eternity C vessel, US Embassy in Yemen says
12:15 10.07.2025
President Ilham Aliyev addresses participants of ICDO General Assembly session
12:00 10.07.2025
US to impose 50% tariffs on imports from Brazil starting August — Trump
11:45 10.07.2025
US resumes certain arms shipments to Ukraine
11:30 10.07.2025
SOCAR president participates in OPEC International Seminar
11:15 10.07.2025
Hamısı