Armenia's activity in relation to joint projects with India - which has recently become more active - is an idle move. Yerevan will not be able to put its plans into practice without reaching an agreement with Azerbaijan. In addition, Armenia's lack of financial potential, as well as the futility of the projects Yerevan is talking about, makes the country unattractive for international investors.
According to Ednews, in the 30 years Armenia's relations with India, there has never been such activity as in the past two years. In October 2021, the head of the Indian Foreign Ministry visited Yerevan (so far no Indian politicians of this level have visited Armenia), then the Armenian foreign minister pays a visit to the port of Mumbai in April, and in an interview with an Indian news outlet in May it was talked about the prospects for cooperation within the North -South - the port of Chabahar, as well as the Persian Gulf - Black Sea corridor. Nevertheless, prior to the visit to Mumbai, the Armenian government planned to sign a customs agreement with India. In a word, Yerevan is making attempts to stretch routes through the territory of its country that are not feasible, given the disappointing state of the country's transport and communication infrastructure and its blockade. In addition, Armenia has no access to the sea, which ensures the high cost of transportation, delays in cargo at the border and many procedures for customs control and bribery. Apart from that, according to the research of the World Bank specialists, the improvement of infrastructure in countries where there is no access to the sea does not solve the problem of slow economic development.
The highway from Iran to Armenia through Syunik passes through Azerbaijani territories in places, and the Tatev-Avgani road is not an alternative for the big plans that Iran has set its sights on: it is mountainous and winding, absolutely impassable for trucks with trailers. In this regard, Yerevan was forced to start building a new Sisian-Kajaran road, which, according to Yerevan, could become an important part of the North-South project. However, on May 1, the Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures of Armenia stated that so far the road has been built only by 5-6%, despite the fact that it has been under construction for many years. Besides that, on June 2, Yerevan announces that the European Investment Bank, which was supposed to finance the construction of the North-South road, the Landjik-Gyumri section, did not transfer funds, and the government should allocate 3 billion drams for this. Yerevan, which was supposed to transfer funds to repay the loan for three years from the moment the loan agreement was signed with the European Investment Bank, did not do this. After the change of power in Armenia in 2018, the government announced the embezzlement of huge amounts of money as part of the project.
Moreover, there is no railway connection between Iran and Armenia, which is so important for the scale of the projects that Yerevan has put its eye on. Over the past decade, both sides have been constantly talking about the construction of a railway connection, but none of them is ready to invest 2-5 billion in its implementation, since there are no financial resources and potential in Armenia, and it is not in the interests of Iran to invest in the country under these conditions similar scales. As a result, the project is undoubtedly desirable for Armenia, but unprofitable for Iran.
The only real opportunity for Armenia to become a part of the large-scale North-South project again lies in the plane of relations with Azerbaijan. The road Arazdeen - Julfa - Ordubad - Meghri, that is, connecting Iran and Armenia through the territory of Azerbaijan, is the most realistic and optimal option. However, how soon will they understand this in Yerevan? In a recent interview with the Armenian Foreign Minister to an Indian publication, Mirzoyan mentioned the country's intention to participate in the Persian Gulf-Black Sea project. Interestingly, referring to what factors did Yerevan decide that the country has sufficient potential and opportunities for this? When will they start making decisions in accordance with their capabilities in Yerevan and voice the objective reality?