Dr André W.M. Gerrits, historian, Professor of International Studies and Global Politics at Leiden University gave exclusive interview on next parliamentiary elections in the Netherlands.

Eurasia Diary: How can you evaluate political situation in the Netherlands before parliament election?

Andre Gerrits: The political situation in the Netherlands is uncertain. The Populist Party for Freedom by Geert Wilders is leading in the polls (although its support seems to be on a slow decline; and the party is still only marginally ahead of the conservative liberals). The current collation government, which has been in power for the full four years term, will not return. Especially the social democratic party, currently in the ruling coalition with the liberals is in a bad shape. It is far behind in the polls. It may lose about 20 of its current 35 seats in parliament.

The political situation seems to be less polarized than a decade ago. The centrist parties have survived the economic crisis. With the exception of the PVV (Party for Freedom) there are few other radical political parties. The state of our parliamentary democracy is lively discussed, but it is not widely challenged.

Eurasia Diary: In your view, if the Party for Freedom which is led by nationalist politician Greet Wilders wins in parliament election, what kind of implications for Netherlands we should expect?

Andre Gerrits: If the Party for Freedom wins the elections, which is not certain yet, it will probably not be part of a governing coalition. Most other political parties have explicitly excluded the possibility to govern with the PVV. So most probably, the party will end up in the opposition (which, especially when it will be the largest party after the elections, is not particularly democratically sound).

The PVV makes two major political points: anti-EU and anti-Islam. These views are not shared, at least not as radically, by any other major party in the Netherlands. Otherwise, the PVV has a mixed agenda. Together with most other ‘populist’ parties in Europe it is strongly anti-elite (especially the political and cultural elite); it is a leftist socioeconomic agenda and it is relatively liberal in normative issues (same-sex marriage, etc.).

If the PVV wins the elections, not much will change. If the PVV wins the elections and ends up in the opposition, it will radicalize its counter-democratic points of view. (Wilders already characterized parliament as a ‘fake’ institution.)

Eurasia Dairy: From your point of view, why cultural issues are more important for public than economy in the Netherlands

Andre Gerrits: The major reasons are: 1.The economic situation in the Netherlands is relatively sound for the largest part of the population. 2. There is a widespread feeling among the population that their lives, their careers, their environment are changing (too) rapidly. This has many features, especially the ever-deeper impact of technological globalization and interconnectedness. 3. The population is changing in the Netherlands, especially in the bigger cities, and this has cultural consequences. People feel estranged or they feel the fear of becoming estranged. Immigration and Islam and its specific, mostly conservative values, are the most obvious aspects of change in the Netherlands.

Eurasia Diary: In your opinion, why left-wing is relatively weak in the Netherlands?

Andre Gerrits: The left has never been in a majority in the Netherlands. The Netherlands have the reputation of a libertarian country; but politically it is a typically centrist country. Especially the social democratic party today is in serious trouble. This is partly the result of their coalition with the conservative liberals and partly the result of a deeper lack of imagination and understanding concerning the cultural issues which concern people (immigration, Islam, etc.). But the left is more than the social democrats. The leading leftwing party in the polls is the Green Party. There is a left-center liberal party which scores well, and there is the Socialist Party (left of the social democratic party) which also has a steady support.

By Yunis Abdullayev