Francis Sealey, the founder of GlobalNet21 public engagement organization gave exclusive interview to Eurasia Diary concerning Scottish National Assembly’s decision on the second referendum for holding independence.  GlobalNet21 has aim to  uses social networks to bring new communities and audiencies in discussing some of big issues that affect us in this centure. Francis Sealey is also a former Producer at the BBC and he  has extensive experience about local communities and the use of social media.

Eurasia Diary:  The National Assembly of Scotland voted in favor of calling second referendum for independence. From your opinion, would Scotland’s decision urge London to suspend Brexit and resume negotiations with the European Union?

Francis Sealey: There is little chance of Scotland demanding a second referendum leading to a suspension of the Brexit negotiations. That would be politically impossible for the British Prime Minster agree on the referendum result.  However the demand for a second Scottish referendum will have a large impact on the negotiations because a bad Brexit deal or no deal at all would lead to strong opposition in Scotland (and Northern Ireland as well) and that could lead to a yes vote in a referendum. The Scottish demand could lead to a “softer Brexit” and if that is not achieved then a delay in any final outcome. If at the end there is no deal at all then I doubt the Government would leave the EU without either a General Election or a second referendum.

Eurasia Diary:  Not only Scotland, also Northern Ireland  voted for remain in the European Union. From point of your view,  would current political process in the kingdom of Scotland  encourage parliament representatives of Northern Ireland to call referendum for independence?

Francis Sealey: The Brexit negotiations could be critical for Northern Ireland. They voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU with nationalist politicians supporting remain and protestant politicians voting to leave. If the negotiations go badly and that result is no longer an open border between the North and the South then there would be a demand not for independence but of unification with the South. The Protestant and Loyalist population might find that hard to take and it could mean instability in that region again. The Government will do all it can to ensure that this does not happen leading to a soft rather than hard Brexit.

Eurasia Diary:  After Brexit, How do you anticipate the future of the European Union?

Francis Sealey: This is one of the most difficult questions to answer and much will depend on the result of the elections in France and Germany and to some extent Italy this coming year. If  Brexit leads to a domino effect, then the EU could break up or divide into different blocs and it will be panic in negotiations to create a new European frame work but that might be difficult. If the elections end up with Governments supported of the EU, then it will probably remain but there will be huge calls for its reform – to a looser and more decentralized Europe. Germany would not want that but Eastern Europe might and a less decentralized and less bureaucratic Europe could seek the UK seeking admission again.

by Yunis Abdullayev