Janusz Niedzwiecki , expert  and publicist on European studies gave an exclusive interview to Eurasia Diary regarding presidential election in France.

Eurasia Diary: From point of your view, how will results of second round of presidential election affect the foreign policy of France?

Janusz Niedzwiecki: All signs indicate that in the second round of presidential elections in France centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron will win – ex-socialist and the leader of the new social-liberal movement "En Marche!" (eng. "Forward!"). Although he received 23.9% of the votes, he is not overwhelming, but there is prognosis that he could defeat the leader of the right-wing party-Marine Le-Pen in the second round (she received 21.4% of votes in the first round). We may assume that all top remaining candidates will support his candidature in the second round, or abstain. It is highly unlikely that Marine Le Pen will get any substantial support.  The Republican candidate, François Fillon, has already declared such support to Macron, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon,  a candidate of the French radical left, will probably be forced to do same thing as Fillon. This is why I strongly believe that if nothing extraordinary happens (i.e. some kind of political scandal) Emmanuel Macron will become the 25th president of France. The election of Macron as president from the perspective of a French foreign policy will certainly bring a relief to all those who are worried about the possible European Union decomposition. Macron, French bureaucrat and former Rotschild & Cie Banque employee, guarantee the continuation of the current pro-European policy of François Hollande. This is one of the reasons that he is so enthusiastically approved  by the French and European political and business establishment. Macron’s political program will protect the interests of the European political elites and Oligarchy. Much more than François Hollande, he will support a policy towards limiting social benefits and the privatization of public services. It is also possible that he will be more open towards limitation of the trade unions and current immigration policy of France and EU.

Eurasia Diary: How can you anticipate the future of the European Union after presidential election in France?

Janusz Niedzwiecki: Regardless, who wins the presidential election in France, whether it may be Marine Le Pen or Emmanuel Macron, the European Union will no longer be the same as during the 5 years presidency of François Hollande. It is clear that the choice of Marine Le Pen could lead to the Frexit and, consequently, the final disintegration of the European Union itself. But the choice of pro-European Emmanuel Macron also will bring a radical change for the EU. First of all, the choice of Macron will probably ultimately lead the EU to the Multi-speed Europe or two-speed Europe (called also "variable geometry Europe"), recently announced during the 60th anniversary of Treaty of Rome (TEEC). Macron embodies everything that is both the best and the worst in European elites. On the one hand, it is pragmatic technocrat with a moderate attitude towards the most vital social problems of the EU. And on the other hand he is also a politician who strongly believes in all the myths of neo-liberalism that lead to bring problems in the EU.  Macron presidency will probably guarantees us 5 more years of stable, pro-European France. However, if  Macron does not make a wide change  which he is promising in campaign now,  in next French presidential elections in 2022 the leader of National Front will win , if nothing changes till that time, EU may actually collapse.