Deputy Director of the Institute for Political Studies Daria Grevtsova special for Eurasia Diary.
The talks between Putin and Erdogan took place in a closed format, so we can talk only about issues that are most likely discussed, but it is not yet clear what agreements the parties have reached on important closed issues.
That was a few. The two main ones are Syria and Russian-Turkish relations.
Close cooperation between Russia and Turkey regarding Syria has been already succeeded. There are ongoing negotiations in Astana, supported by Russia, Iran and Turkey. It would be impossible to take control of part of Syria and divide the two Kurdish enclaves in Syria without any support from Russia, and it’s make sense for Turkey. On the other hand Syrian army couldn’t take control of Aleppo so easily. In fact a number of jihadist groups just left Aleppo without a fight by order of Turkey, which made it easier to capture the city
The operation in Deir ez-Zor comes to end. Apparently, Assad will take this region in the near future, which is very important, since there is a large part of Syrian oil. Previously, oil from Deir-ez-Zor was sold through intermediaries by Turkey. But then, after the Russian plane shot down by Turkey, Russian aviation destroyed all the ways of smuggling oil from Deir ez Zor to Turkey. Now Assad will take this Turkish oil for himself.
Nowadays we are witnessing the last days of ISIS, and it’s the most important. It, probably, will happen in the near future. The last two large outbreaks are Rakka and Deir ez Zor. Rakka will be taken by the American-backed Kurds, and Deir ez Zor be Syrian army with the support of Russia.
What's next? Either the transition to the peace process, or (which cannot be ruled out), those who fought with IGIL, will begin to fight with each other. This is the most important issue that Putin and Erdogan discussed.
There are a few major players now. Syrian army, Kurds supported by Americans , Jabhat al-Nusra with Saudi Arabia, Ahrar Al-Sham with Qatar and partly Turkey, and the pro-Turkish Syrian Free Army. Apart from these forces, dozens of medium and hundreds of small armed organizations operate in Syria. It is necessary to decide which of them can be admitted to the future Syrian parliament, and who needs to be destroyed in order to establish peace. This issue was also most likely discussed at the talks. This item was referred to as the discussion of the de-escalation zone in Idlib, since Idlib is the place where most of the armed opposition jihadist groups concentrate.
The second topic is bilateral relations between countries. Putin clearly said that he opened the way for Russian tourists to the Turkish resorts. There are already 2.5 million Russians have come. We must bear in mind that this was a gesture of goodwill, because the situation with security in Turkey is far from ideal. Moreover, Russia has removed almost all restrictions on Turkish agricultural products. In exchange, Russia requires admission to the Turkish market of Russian agricultural products (especially meat), which remains almost closed.
The second important direction of economic interaction is the Turkish ‘Flow’. So far only the first line is being built, but is possible to open four in the long term. Another important project is the Akkuyu nuclear power plant. It is not just an atomic power plant, it is a cascade of nuclear power plants together with the nuclear industry that Russia creates for Turkey. Russia is already investing huge sums in this project and public opinion in our country has serious fears that the investment will not return soon.
Another area is military-technical cooperation, in particular, the S-400. Russia is passing these new complexes, which NATO is sharply opposed. And this issue also needs serious discussion by the leaders of our countries.
I believe that the issues of Iraqi Kurdistan were also discussed, which are very troubling for the Turks. They are very much afraid of a chain reaction will take place - Iraqi Kurdistan, Syrian Kurdistan, and then it will reach the Turkish Kurdistan.
This is a mandatory agenda. There is also an optional agenda, which could be, or not.
The topic of the talks could be relations with the European Union. Since both Russia and Turkey have very complicated and tense relations with EU, they could significantly strengthen their negotiating positions if they began to coordinate their actions and support each other.
Another possible topic of negotiations could be the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The armed conflict there is frozen, but it can break out again any time, because the negotiations have reached a deadlock. And Turkey and Russia should have a plan of joint action in case of aggravation of the situation.
They could talk about Trump. Putin and Erdogan have a good attitude towards Trump, they hope for him. But the enemies, who at the same time enemies of Trump, Erdogan, and Putin, do not give Trump to pursue his positive foreign policy. Putin and Erdogan could discuss how they can help Trump defeat their common enemies.
Whether these issues were discussed at the talks between Putin and Erdogan or not, cannot say for sure. In any case, these are the topics that are currently on the agenda.
