Donald Trump's decision of withdrawal of US troops from Syria and a potential plan for Afghanistan base shook agenda. Many scholars predicted such kind of action before but none knows when. Eurasia Diary asked about the decision from international experts and revised the current situation.

Dr. Bruno Surdel is an expert at Centre for International Relations Warsaw. Dr. Surdel expressed his opinion about the happening situation. 

He described Donald Trump as an unpredictable politician but, his decision of withdrawal is predictable. Surdel links this issue with the idea of "America First" of Trump announced by him publicly and privately. 

This is an economic issue but also a symbolic one for millions of ordinary Americans: „Why we are still there, spending billions of our dollars and putting at risk the lives of our boys in those never-ending wars in the Middle East? There is no chance for those conflicts to come to a close anyway – with us or without us.”

Most ordinary Americans do not think about US strategic interests – and President Trump is sending his message precisely to average American citizens, mainly to his own voters. He says: „Look, I’m your President, and I am not going to waste your money and your blood in exotic wars anymore. Vote for me again in 2020. I’m a guy who keeps his promises unlike most of the other politicians."

Mr. Surdel also focused on the potential withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. He considers that Trump probably thinks he can clinch a deal with the Taliban – which is not feasible. The only deal the Taliban can accept is a full withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Even a gradual one. But even if Mr. Trump brings all his troops back to the USA, they will have to return: such is the situation in Afghanistan.

In Syria, US military can still operate from Iraq and Qatar or other US bases in the region. But a real and total US withdrawal from Syria means one basic thing: a comprehensive deal between Trump and Erdogan about the so-called Rojava – SDF/YPG held Syrian territories east of Euphrates. We know what happened in Afrin. The same would happen to SDF/YPG held parts of north-eastern Syria.

Eurasia Diary took the opinion of Dr. Selin Shenocak also. She claims that this is a tactical maneuver. Dr. Shenocak compares the current situation with 2010's withdrawal in Obama time from Iraq. After US withdrawal new terror state called ISIS emerged. She considers that same situation can happen after some period. This is a part of Great Middle East Project which uncompleted yet and Trump's decision doesn't mean the US to give up from the project.

Trump revealed that the US spent 7 billions of dollar to the Middle East, so thinking the finish of the project is very naive. Dr. Shenocak thought that somehow the US will back to the stage, and the creation of terror state once again is possible. The potential tool for this is YPG.

Dr. Surdel evaluate the current situation by asking these questions: Is it OK for the American plans to eliminate the Iranian influence from Syria? I’m not that sure. Effectively, Syria would be divided into Turkish and Russian / Iranian zones. Is going Israel to be happy with such a prospect? I don’t think so. Finally, I am sure that at some point in the near future the Americans will have to come back to Syria, anyway.

Both opinion actually shows us that Trump's announcement doesn't express the step back of US  from the region. 

Eurasia Diary

• Tags:
• Syria
• Turkey
• Iran
• Israel
• YPG
• PKK
• ISIS