The former special adviser to US State Secretary, political analyst Paul A. Goble shared his views with Eurasia Diary about the recent developments on Post-Soviet space.
The United States of America under Donald Trump administration follows different political line on Post-Soviet space. The US is rapidly withdrawing from much of the world, including the South Caucasus, except to the extent that the situation there is linked to Trump’s campaign against Iran.
Paul Goble thinks that the US has opened the way for other actors including Russia to expand their role. While speaking about Georgian acceptance to NATO, Goble sees little chance for it.
"Georgia should have been admitted to NATO in 2008 but now there is little chance given that Washington has been attacking the alliance rather than building it up. The situation is truly dire for those who looked to the West to defend its principles," political analyst said
Paul Goble also paid attention to the endurance of Russian based CSTO. Paul Goble thinks that CSTO is not an alternative to NATO.
"NATO was not a means to promote American hegemony despite what Moscow says. It was a means to block further Russian aggression. The CSTO is a device to promote Russian control over the region.
Paul Goble doesn't consider Russian CSTO endurable in the region. "In the short term, Russia may have some success in that; in the longer term, it will lose out".
Paul Goble also touches Moscow policy over Eastern Europe. As we, know Georgians marched against Russia in Tbilisi and Ukraine refused negotiations with Russia until the return of its lands including Crimea.
"Moscow has gained in some places but the overall trend is clear: it is losing its positions by promoting its desire to dominate too actively."
Although some tensions happened between Russia and Belarus, the political analyst doesn't think the possibility of Anschluss of Belarus.
"I fear that Russian control there will expand over the coming months because of the failure of the US and the EU," Paul Goble concluded.
Interviewed by Ulvi Ahmedli
