ISW believes that the Kremlin is trying to use pro-Russian figures in Moldova to destabilise Moldovan democracy and society, Ednews reports via Ukranian Pravda.
In this way, Russia wants to prevent Moldova from joining the European Union or even justify future hybrid or conventional operations against Moldova.
Evgenia Gutsul, the Kremlin-linked governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, has hinted that Romanian officials control the Moldovan government. This was the latest in a series of recent attempts by the Kremlin to question the sovereignty of European pro-Western governments.
Gutsul said on 8 April during an interview on Russia's state-run Pervyi Kanal (Channel One) TV channel that if Gagauzia starts the process of secession from Moldova, the reaction will come not only from the Moldovan government in Chișinău but also from Bucharest, Romania, which Gutsul said "controls" the Moldovan authorities, implying that Moldova is not a sovereign state.
Gutsul claimed that the Moldovan authorities could respond to Gagauzia's secession with "loud, threatening statements" or send troops into Gagauzia.
She also said that the unification of Moldova with Romania would be the "death" of Moldova, the Moldovan language and culture.
On 5 April, Gutsul said that Gagauzia would "immediately" start the process of secession from Moldova if Moldova united with Romania.
Military analysts believe that Gutsul's interview on Russian state television on 8 April was likely aimed at creating conditions to justify potential future Russian aggression against Moldova to Russian-speaking and pro-Russian audiences in Gagauzia, the pro-Russian breakaway republic of Transnistria, other pro-Russian regions of Europe and Central Asia, and in Russia itself. The Kremlin likely sees its efforts in Moldova as part of Russia's broader existential geopolitical conflict with the West. Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and MFA officials have recently hinted that Western countries are somehow directing the Armenian government's national security policy and claimed that Finland "lost its independence in making foreign policy decisions" after joining NATO.
Previously, in order to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has made similar false claims that NATO controls Ukraine and uses Ukraine to threaten Russia. The Kremlin is likely to continue to claim that various target states are not fully sovereign in order to set the information conditions for Russian hybrid or conventional operations against them.
