US and Russia's mutual withdrawal from the INF treaty has been a major contravention of the world agenda. This step of the two superpowers is expected to have a major impact on world politics.

 Expert of Warsaw's Centre for International Relations, Dr Bruno Surdel speaks to Eurasia Diary for explaining the situation after the withdrawal.

"We should put the issue of US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) into a wider context. Since 1987 the world has changed dramatically. I mean China has become not only the world’s second-largest economy but also increasingly a very sophisticated, advanced and assertive military power in Asia – Pacific," said expert.

Bruno Surdel, who pointed out that the existence of Washington-Beijing struggle explains the situation: "Trump Administration made the issue clear already last year. So this is not just Russia but China too. Not only Russia’s behaviour on the international stage, its military modernization and what the Americans and its NATO allies call the violation of the INF but China’s rise has also contributed to Washington’s calculations and decisions. Probably the USA thinks that this is the last moment to stop China. "

Dr Surdel said the withdrawal would lead to a new arms race: "I am afraid that the INF withdrawal will be followed by a non-extension or renewal of the New START Agreement which expires in 2021. Another issue is, are Moscow and Beijing – their economies - ready for a new long term arms race? "

The expert considers that the Europeans are definitely not happy with a prospect of a new nuclear arms race on their territory or – on the other hand – further heavy militarization of Russia’s Kaliningrad region. This is why German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany as such are committed to do what it takes to save the deal. But that’s unlikely. 

"As regards Russia’s near neighbourhood, it remains to be seen how the possible escalation will impact what the Kremlin will do on its military bases in the Caucasus or – generally – in the Caucasus. This is also a critical question of Turkey. Turkey’s geopolitical situation is very delicate and difficult. So far Ankara has been able to manage the developments properly, and I believe that this is precisely Turkey – a NATO-member but also an important partner of Russia which can play a positive role in the current situation in the region. "

According to the expert, the withdrawal of signatures of Russia and the United States and the entrance of China in the world arena as a military power shows that we will witness new confrontations in the political arena.

Written by Ulvi Ahmedli