The biggest obstacles to a rational European foreign policy are American pressure, the internal crisis of Western European elites, and the continent’s neo-colonial economic model. Western Europe’s current antagonism toward Russia is not a natural state of affairs—it is a function of relentless US coercion. If this external pressure weakens, a shift in rhetoric and policy could come swiftly, transforming the political landscape of the continent.

Regardless of how long the conflict in Ukraine continues, Russia cannot ignore its relations with its immediate Western neighbors. While Moscow has expanded its global partnerships, Europe remains a geographic and historical constant. The region’s role in world affairs, however, is changing fundamentally, with its influence declining under American dominance.

For much of the 20th century, Western Europe’s relationship with the US dictated its political and economic trajectory. Now, that relationship is not only defining its external stance but also its domestic political dynamics. How this dynamic evolves will determine whether the region can contribute positively to Eurasian stability or continue serving as a source of instability.

A Security Umbrella or a US Protectorate?
At the heart of the US-European relationship is the question of security. Washington’s objectives in Europe have always been twofold: preventing the rise of an independent European military power and using the continent as a staging ground for confrontation with Moscow. The so-called American “security umbrella” is a myth perpetuated for propaganda purposes. In reality, what exists is a US protectorate, reluctantly accepted but actively sustained by certain European elites. This arrangement has only accelerated the continent’s decline.

Nowhere is this decline more visible than in Western Europe’s three most powerful states—Britain, Germany, and France. Each has suffered a slow erosion of its global standing. Each has surrendered strategic autonomy to Washington. Each now dutifully executes even the most irrational dictates from across the Atlantic, receiving nothing in return that enhances either national security or economic strength.

Even economically, the cost of Western Europe’s subservience is becoming unbearable. The loss of access to cheap Russian energy has crippled its industry, while economic dependence on the US has yielded no meaningful benefits. Western Europe is neither more prosperous nor more secure as a result of its adherence to Washington’s agenda. If anything, it has lost its ability to act in its own interests.

The Flawed Premise of an American Security Umbrella 
The notion that Western Europe relies on American protection from a serious military adversary is fundamentally flawed. If the region truly faced an existential threat, the only plausible adversary would be Russia. Yet, Russia and the US are locked in a relationship of strategic where both possess the ability to inflict unacceptable damage on each other.

The idea that Washington would risk its own survival to defend European states from Russia is laughable. Even those who have sacrificed much of their sovereignty—such as Germany, Britain, and Italy, which host US nuclear weapons—have no real guarantee of American intervention. Their servility has bought them nothing but subjugation.

This reality is well understood in European capitals, though few admit it openly. Instead, Western European leaders continue to act in ways that serve American rather than national interests. Washington views Europe as little more than a base for operations against Russia—its primary value being its geographic location. The US will never sacrifice its own security for the sake of its European vassals.

Europe’s Growing Irrelevance
Great powers are rarely concerned with the balance of power among their weaker allies. For the US, Europe’s role as a launching pad for anti-Russian policy is useful, but hardly essential. This explains Washington’s relative indifference to the economic and political decay of its European allies. The future of US foreign policy lies in the Pacific, not the Atlantic. As Washington focuses on its strategic rivalry with China, Europe’s significance will diminish further.

For now, however, American pressure remains Europe’s primary foreign policy driver. Even the largest Western European nations behave with the same servility as the former Soviet Baltic republics. But what happens when Washington’s strategic priorities shift? When the US no longer needs a significant military presence in Europe, will Western European elites adjust? Or will they continue on the path of self-destruction?

The Road to a New Europe
For Europe to break free from its current trajectory, two key barriers must be overcome: American pressure and the self-inflicted crisis of its political elites. The latter is particularly problematic. Many Western European politicians—especially those operating within EU institutions—are products of a system that rewards incompetence and corruption. These individuals owe their positions not to merit or national interest, but to their ability to align with American priorities.

This phenomenon has produced a generation of European leaders completely detached from their own populations. They have no real strategy for economic growth, no vision for long-term security, and no interest in fostering stable relations with their neighbors. The only objective they pursue with enthusiasm is the continuation of a disastrous foreign policy that has left Western Europe weaker, poorer, and increasingly unstable.

However, should Washington’s grip loosen, Europe’s geopolitical outlook could change dramatically. If the continent ceases to function as a mere extension of American power, the demand for competent, pragmatic leaders will rise. Politicians who prioritize national interest over ideological loyalty to Washington will become necessary for Europe’s survival.

Conclusion: The Potential for Change
Europe is at a crossroads. The continent can either continue down the path of decline or reclaim its agency in global affairs. The reduction of US pressure would likely trigger a rapid shift in both rhetoric and policy. Left to its own devices, Western Europe would have little incentive to maintain a cold war stance against Russia.

While this transformation will not happen overnight, the factors driving change are already in motion. American focus is drifting toward China. European economies are struggling under the weight of misguided policies. And public discontent with elite incompetence is growing.

The days of the region serving as an unquestioning subordinate to Washington may be numbered. If and when that moment arrives, a new Western Europe—one capable of independent thought and rational policy—may finally emerge