A review of events...
Autumn has arrived and Armenia has again started to repeat the mistakes it made 3 years ago. First, let's take a look at the events that took place, or rather, the wrong steps taken...
- The Ministry of Defense of Armenia emphasized that it will conduct military exercises with the United States under the name "Eagle Partners" from September 11 to 20.
- France made statements oriented towards Armenia.
- In an interview with an Italian publication, Pashinyan pointed to Russia as the center of the whole problem.
- The last and pitiful thing is the decision of the Armenian Parliament to ratify the "Rome Statute".
Why does Armenia turn its back on Russia?
As you can see, Armenia has taken all the steps that will enable it to be removed from the geopolitical map. Armenian-Russian relations have become tense like never before. Russian media writes that, in principle, the fact that the USA and Armenia hold exercises is not so unusual. NATO countries have been cooperating with the Caucasian states for a long time. However, the Kremlin official does not hide his remarks against Yerevan, and openly states that he was not happy with the news about the US-Armenia exercises to be held in Armenia this month. This was stated by Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.
Before that, Armenia declared that the military exercises of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) cannot be carried out on its territory. Because this can create a problem for the country between Azerbaijan and Turkey.
If this is really the case and Armenia supports participation in other exercises of the CSTO, then why did its servicemen not participate in the "Battle brotherhood" exercises, which took place from September 1 to 6, in which the armed forces of Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan participated?
Armenia want Putin's arrest...
In his interview with La Repubblica, Prime Minister Pashinyan pointed out that Russia is the main source of problems in the South Caucasus and accepted the "Rome Status", which implies the arrest of Putin, indicating that Armenia aims to cut ties with the Kremlin.
It seems that Armenia trusts its Western patrons more than Russia, which is next to it. Armenia's approach to the issue from this perspective has never brought it success. It should be mentioned here that a similar scenario took place in 2020. At that time, Armenia committed military provocations against Azerbaijan, relying on its famous Western patrons, threatening Azerbaijan. It is well known that the last time this happened, the results did not end well for him.
At present, we can mention one reason why Armenia has taken so many wrong steps, and that is the capital elections to be held in Yerevan on September 17. I think Pashinyan should understand that in order to gain influence, he may lose his country's sovereignty.
France's Armenian policy...
France views the new war that may occur in the South Caucasus as an opportunity to settle down in the region. He is not so interested in the fate of Armenia. As always, Armenians are doomed to be used and thrown away like disposable pieces of paper. Throughout history, Armenia has played the role of a mechanism of influence. French political circles hope that if a new regional war breaks out, it will be able to penetrate this region and grab a share of the geo-economic potential of the South Caucasus.
USA vs Russia...
The US, on the other hand, is looking for arguments about Russia's failure to establish peace in the region. He can simply impose sanctions on Azerbaijan in war conditions, but that doesn't seem realistic either. The West is doing everything in its power to push Azerbaijan to war. However, Azerbaijan still approaches the issue cautiously.
In the end, Russia again...
If we look at the course of events, we can clearly state that Russia never forgives such behavior. As a regional power, Armenia's security depends only on Russia. It is worrying that the Kremlin has not yet responded adequately to the events.
Such decisions have an irreversible impact. Under these circumstances, two things can happen. Considering the strengthening of the radical wing of the separatists, we can see the overthrow of Pashinyan. Another possibility is the anti-terrorist operation that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces can carry out in Karabakh and a new war with Armenia.
Akbar Novruz
.jpeg)
