Most recently, while addressing a symposium on BRI development, the Chinese President Xi Jinping, stressed comprehensively advancing high-quality cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Xi rightly termed development of a qualitative BRI as imperative to strengthen strategic confidence, maintain strategic focus and act courageously with a sense of responsibility to create a brighter future.
Xi’s suggestions to properly handle the relationship between strengthening participating countries’ sense of fulfilment and ensuring the benefits for China is commendable and would be beneficial to counter the expected threats and tariffs of the US President-elect Donald Trump. It seems that economic globalization is going to be changed because of frequent threats and tariffs of Trump, especially after January 20, 2024 due to which even the Chinese BRI would also be passing through difficult times.
President-elect Donald Trump’s flurry of threats of new tariffs have actually started an ending trade war in which no one will be the winner but all losers disturbing the international trade system, global supply chains, moving towards surgical strikes on the Global South and the developing & under-developed countries. Thus there is an urgent need to revisit policies of the BRI making it immune to imminent new trade war in the days to come.
In the most recent past, the threats of imposing 100 percent tariffs on the BRICS vividly reflect his business oriented intuitions compelling the global community and countries to take some extraordinary measures to mitigate the spillover socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic ramifications of Trump’s trade and tariffs crusades. So it is indeed a wake-up call for the BRICS to take all appropriate measures to safeguard their vested interests.
The three biggest exporters/trading partners of the US, mainly China, Canada and Mexico, have been specifically targeted by the warning of US President-elect Trump’s pledge to impose sweeping tariffs. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum termed it a big risk to common businesses.
Trump’s vow to impose 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10 percent on goods from China, has sparked a heated debate in international media, calling for a truce and more sensible trade management to strengthen the global trading system in the future
Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke to Trump in the hours after the announcement and planned to hold a meeting with Canada’s provincial leaders to discuss a response. Trudeau said his country was prepared to work with the US in “constructive ways”.
Additionally, a spokesman for China’s embassy in Washington DC told the BBC that “no-one will win a trade war or a tariff war” and termed China-US economic and trade cooperation mutually beneficial in nature. He denied that China allows chemicals used in the manufacture of illegal drugs – including fentanyl – to be smuggled to the US.
While meeting with the incumbent US President Joe Biden the Chinese President Xi conveyed his willingness to work with Trump showing his strong commitment to work for economic globalization and international cooperation.
Lately, the US trade officials announced a preliminary decision to set a new round of tariffs on solar panel imports from four Southeast Asian nations, with calculated dumping duties of between 21.31 and 271.2 percent, depending on the company, on solar cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. If these preliminary rates are upheld in the final determinations and enforced, they could further disrupt global supply chains and have a detrimental effect on the industry in countries, including the US.
According to media reports, the US photovoltaic industry, which has flourished over the past decade due to favourable subsidy policies, is now facing major challenges, with some companies grappling with financial difficulties.
If the US imposes high “dumping tariffs” on crystalline photovoltaic cells imported from four Southeast Asian countries, it is likely to further push up the prices of domestic photovoltaic products, thereby suppressing market demand. In the end, those advocating for trade protectionism may come to realize that tariff barriers will ultimately stifle the long-term growth potential of the US photovoltaic industry.
In summary, the 3Ts i.e. Trump, threats and tariffs are going to be crusading the international economy, industry, manufacturing capacity, renewables, green technologies and above all economic globalization.
The Malaysian government’s pleading with China not to use its soil to avoid the expected high US tariffs is the clear cut indication that trans-regional stealth geo-politics has already reactivated starting a new kind of protectionism and anti-China bloc in the days to come. Thus Asia Pacific, APEC and ASEAN would also be feeling the heat of Trump threats and tariffs after January 20, 2025. Therefore, policy makers of China should chalk out a new strategic road map for the further development, expansion, scope and utility of the BRI because allies and members are facing unavoidable pressures of Washington DC to stay away from China.
Speculations are very high even in Pakistan for an anti-China and CPEC setup under the regime of Trump therefore track-II diplomacy has been started via Saudi Arabia to minimize the expected diplomatic or political pressure. Thus the civilian government, military establishment and Beijing must be on the same page for successful geopolitical manoeuvrings in the days to come.
Moreover, the US-China ongoing trade war is creating numerous problems for South Asian security and economic integration. The US choice of India as a regional surrogate in its contain China’ policy the region has suffered a continual security dilemma and economic fragmentation which would be further escalated under the Trump regime.
The policymakers of China must revisit their policies of the BRI making it more interconnected, integrated, interactive and productive for all the member countries that the US may not allure these countries to avoid China and its projects in the days to come.
BRI may consider starting numerous small projects of community development, poverty eradication, generation of new jobs, social development for women empowerment, anti-global warming, hybrid agriculture, artificial intelligence, digitalization and modernization to show uncompromised solidarity and international cooperation with all the members.
Reallocation of qualitative industries to Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Laos, Peru, Brazil and other parts of the world would be the right policy in the right direction to skip expected onslaught of Trump high tariffs. Thus safety, security and systematic execution of the BRI and CPEC projects would be counterproductive for all the stakeholders in the days to come.
Author: Dr Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan
Source: Pakistan Observer
