Ednews presents its interview with french politologue Martin Ryan.
- We know that relations between France and Azerbaijan are in a critical state. I want to know your opinion about France's arming of Armenia. What do you think is the purpose here? Do you think that broken relationships are likely to be restored?
- In my opinion, the weaponry that France has supplied to Armenia is not likely to modify the balance of power in the region nor to represent a serious threat to Azerbaijan. I think that this is just a naive attempt to try to "exist" in the region, a bit like at the time of the Minsk group, this time facing the Russians and the Turks who are in their sphere of influence. I think that the only chance for relations to improve again between our two countries is for peace to be signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, this will definitively close the era of mediations and geopolitical intrigues.
- Mr. O'rien, given the rise of the far-right in Europe, do you think far-right parties in France will hope to "ride the populist wave" in the 2024 European elections? Will France be affected?
- France, like many European countries, is also in this dynamic of the rise of so-called “populist” or “extreme right” parties. Each new election shows that they are more and more supported and popular, so the 2024 European elections will not escape the rule.
- We hear and see that France has too many problems, its population complains about the current migrant problem. Is the situation in France really as bad as they say?
- Immigration is starting to pose a serious problem in France because it is not regulated. For a long time this question was taboo, but today it has become impossible to ignore it. Just to give you an example: at the beginning of this month, two young French women were raped in Paris in broad daylight by an illegal Central African immigrant, who was the subject of a procedure requiring him to leave the territory. In October, a young Chechen refugee murdered a French teacher in a provincial high school. Cases like these are unfortunately becoming more and more common.
- Why is Macron's foreign policy so confused? We can see its lack in every region (Far East, Caucasus, Israel-Hamas, to be precise). Do you think there will be a turning point for France in the near future?
- In my opinion, President Macron has no vision for France. He appears to have no concern for our fundamental interests, whatever the region of the world. He is also very poorly advised, by people who do not seem to understand the issues and the real balance of power in today's world. Unfortunately, I don't see any real serious alternative for the next few years. Barring a major institutional crisis, I do not see any prospects for real change before the 2027 presidential elections and a complete change of team.
- Finally, what do you think is necessary for a complete resolution of the Israel-Hamas conflict? A two-state format, or an international zone should be established in the area?
- I think the two-state solution, with international status for Jerusalem, is the most desirable and reasonable solution. Unfortunately I don't believe that both parties really want this, at least Hamas and the current Israeli government. A sufficiently strong and impartial mediator is undoubtedly necessary, but it is difficult to see one. Some people mention Saudi Arabia with Mohammad Ben Salman, who may have leverage against Hamas and who seeks to normalize its relations with Israel.