From the previous U.S. presidents, we observed that American foreign policy was always cautious towards China towards holding the ties strong and safe. In this regard, American decision-makers were always trying to prevent possible “Chinese rise” by avoiding the escalation of war with Chinese counterparts. On the opposite sides, recent events fueled the positive relations between U.S. and China prior to the election of Donald Trump as a new U.S. president. Mr. Trump’s position towards China as a both economic partner as well as a political counterpart seem not going in a positive direction by considering the direction he followed and is foreseen to follow.
Two Shaping Concepts in U.S.-China relations
In terms of U.S. foreign policy towards China, there are always two main concepts seem to be dominant while making decision. First of all, China is very sensitive towards the issue of territorial unity. As a result, One-China policy is adopted policy of the People Republic of China (PRC) and claims the existence of only one China as a state and urges other states to cut relationship with the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan) as an independent state in the case of established relations with the PRC. In this regard, U.S. to maintain a good relationship with Beijing was always careful in the topic of Unrecognized State of Taiwan.
Another essential point is in terms of Chinese power stretch and possible threat towards U.S. in the sense of power transition. Current economic as well as military stretch of China makes debate over the possible threat to U.S. global power. In terms of economy, Beijing consensus gave China a chance to create strong economic ties with the third world and attract developing countries through investment, aid and trade relations without offering any harsh conditions as well as by expanding its soft power. For instance, within Beijing Consensus, in terms of investment China created a close cooperation with African countries so in return to the natural resources, China started to build up infrastructure in African states which is demonstrated in the figure provided by World Foresight Forum.
Current Events
Recent news, after the election of Donald Trump the relationship between U.S. and China appears to flow in different direction. As stated by Donald Trump in his interview to Fox News "I fully understand the 'one China' policy, but I don't know why we have to be bound by a 'one China' policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade". From this statement, it is crystal clear that Mr. Trump as a businessman only interested in the economic relations with China by abandoning agreed policy of decades. This action further was fuelled with recent news on Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s stopover visit to Washington and a possible meeting with Mr. Trump for the next month. Despite the fact that, President Tsai Ing-wen’s main aim is visiting Latin American countries (Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador), speculations on visiting Congress as well as the possibility of meeting with president-elect angered Beijing and Chinese side urged United Nations to block possible stopover. This news related to Unrecognized State of Taiwan is a huge attack to the Chinese One-China policy and basically will affect the Chinese relations with U.S. in a very negative way since Unrecognized State of Taiwan is a push button for China in the world politics.
Very interestingly, the Beijing response to the recent U.S. position towards China is worth to mention as well since China is not calm as well in its actions regionally. It was reported that Chinese aircraft carrier practiced in Pacific and moved to the South China Sea where the hot conflict zone for China and its neighbouring countries is in December 2016. Further Chinese seizure of U.S. underwater drone in the South China Sea as well as in January it was reported that China confirmed that it conducted drills in South China Sea. In this regard, U.S. Pacific fleet stated that “U.S. is ready to confront with China if it continues to claim its overreaching maritime claims further”. All these events are the great proofs that U.S. and China relationship seems to be heated up if two parties keep the same position as it is now.
Economic Interdependence: Current U.S. – China Case
One of the cornerstones of liberal thinking, economic interdependence leading to peace seems to be shaken in the case of U.S China relations and leading to further escalation. During his election campaign, Donald Trump called China as a currency manipulator and demonstrated his eager to impose 45% tariffs on Chinese imported products due to perceived Chinese unfair trade practices. Furthermore, in his presidential debates, Mr. Trump expressed his antipathy towards “rebuilding China through U.S. investments and economic privileges” ideology. Despite the huge devastation that will cause to American domestic companies that either sourcing raw materials or manufacturing final goods, the relationship between China and U.S. which is stabled by economic ties is projected to be shaken in the following years causing both parties huge losses. In the table below provided by U.S Department of Commerce, it is clear that in November, 2016 China was in the first place for U.S. trading partners for goods.
China Top 5 Export Partners- 2015
Source: World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)
In the second data provided by the WITS, we observe that U.S. market for China is a huge income source. In this regard, if U.S. levies a huge tariff on Chinese products as Mr. Trump mentioned in his campaign, China not only will lose a huge amount, but also reciprocally will make a “trade war” against U.S. by levying heavy taxes on U.S. products as well. However, from my point of view, in this war the outcome for U.S. will be harder than China since U.S. government will be under threat due to the democratic ruling system, whereas in China the step that the government follows will not be reacted or heard same as in U.S.
Concluding Remarks
The relationship between China and U.S. seems to affect the whole world since two of these powers are the determinant players in the global arena. For now, above mentioned cases demonstrates that China due to approach changed approach of U.S. towards China seems to alter its position from the concept of rising peacefully. However, this act will not be encountered by U.S. in a calm way since U.S. as a great power will do what its best to prevent the possible power transition in the world.
By Shahana Bilalova
